The Future of Home Video

Discuss North American DVDs and Blu-rays or other DVD and Blu-ray-related topics.
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
dx23
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:52 pm
Location: Puerto Rico

Re: The Future of Home Video

#226 Post by dx23 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:39 pm

This article reflects my view of why I'm more than willing to keep my physical formats (DVD/Blu-ray) instead of trusting content delivered digitally/streamed. Amazon, iTunes, Playstation Network, etc, will fall one day and we won't be able to stream the digital content we paid for.

Numero Trois
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:23 am
Location: Florida

Re: The Future of Home Video

#227 Post by Numero Trois » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:43 am

EricJ wrote:Kindle DID replace books because of space issue--especially as most new bestsellers still come out as hardbacks or very large and heavy trade paperbacks
Except that books aren't close to being replaced by digital and they won't be for quite some time-
NY Times wrote: E-book sales fell by 10 percent in the first five months of this year, according to the Association of American Publishers, which collects data from nearly 1,200 publishers. Digital books accounted last year for around 20 percent of the market, roughly the same as they did a few years ago.

E-books’ declining popularity may signal that publishing, while not immune to technological upheaval, will weather the tidal wave of digital technology better than other forms of media, like music and television.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/23/busin ... .html?_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

User avatar
FrauBlucher
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:28 pm
Location: Greenwich Village

Re: The Future of Home Video

#228 Post by FrauBlucher » Sun Nov 29, 2015 12:54 am


User avatar
Minkin
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:13 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#229 Post by Minkin » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:02 am

I made a serious investigation into "cutting the cord" a couple of years ago, but quite a few mountains stand between me and the broadcast towers, thus I'd get one channel and only if I put up a 50 foot tower. The pains one suffers just for TCM, PBS and MeTV.


User avatar
colinr0380
Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:30 pm
Location: Chapel-en-le-Frith, Derbyshire, UK

Re: The Future of Home Video

#231 Post by colinr0380 » Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:42 am

So when are we seeing 4K Blu-ray players and, more importantly, will they be backwards compatible?

User avatar
perkizitore
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:29 pm
Location: OOP is the only answer

Re: The Future of Home Video

#232 Post by perkizitore » Sat Dec 26, 2015 11:40 am

If you mean UHD blu-ray players, in early 2016 and they will be backwards compatible. True 4K will require more space than 100GB that the format allows, so don't hold your breath (not to mention giving you the real deal will bite into cinema ticket sales)

User avatar
FrauBlucher
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:28 pm
Location: Greenwich Village

Re: The Future of Home Video

#233 Post by FrauBlucher » Sat Dec 26, 2015 11:54 am

If the studios and labels phased out DVDs, would it force consumers to streaming or to upgrade to blu ray and the newer blu ray formats?

onedimension
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:35 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#234 Post by onedimension » Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:04 am

Really interesting thread.. One important test will be consumer reaction to 4K/HDR- will it be impressive enough to spur disc sales? Increasingly, even as someone with an enormous dvd/blu collection, I'm starting to think 1080p, even at streaming quality, may be 'good enough' for the typical consumer and even some of the hardcore ones. Most people are willing to accept 'mp3 quality', or even 'CD quality', and something like SACD ended up being past what the market wanted..

I just bought an Apple TV for my bedroom, and the streaming quality- of Netflix and of Apple purchases- is inferior to disc, but the difference is mostly evened out for me by the prospect of getting rid of four seven foot tall IKEA shelves full of discs in my living room.

That said, the longevity and 'renting' concerns matter to me, too- I've spent 15 years accumulating a massive library and I'm not eager to put all that on the server of a company that could go under. Amazon and Apple will go the way of IBM, and there's no guarantee that my purchases will last a lifetime. Digital discs, in theory, could.

The biggest problem is that the streaming/digital purchase market is an absolute mess. Netflix and Hulu made cord-cutting appealing, but when it comes to owning content, there are 15 different vendors with content and devices that aren't universally inter-operable, all vying for market share, and the home video industry saw what happened to the record industry and wants to head that off at any cost.

So it's incredibly unfriendly to consumers- if I want to buy an episode or a movie, I can choose between iTunes, which only works on my Apple TV, or Amazon Instant Video, which I can only access on my Xbox, or some smart TVs, or I can use the Microsoft store on my Xbox One, which tethers the movie to that device, or I can use Google Play, or Vudu. I bought a copy of The Hobbit Trilogy at Target because it advertised its digital copies, but that meant creating two different accounts with Ultraviolet and 'Flixster'.. It's a mess, completely balkanized.

And when some of us rushed online to get and share music 15 years ago, we were also able to 'rip' all of our CDs and get digital copies free, and as a perk of buying a CD. Ripping blu rays is more difficult, and the hard drive storage situation isn't comparable. Maybe SSDs and disk advances will get us there- but taking 500 CDs and putting them on a hard drive in iTunes was easy enough in 2005; in 2015, I'd have to spend at least 2 thousand dollars on hard drives to host all my blu rays, then set up some kind of home server..

Apple doesn't have the same leverage they did a decade ago, and there's not likely to be a consumer-friendly solution on the horizon barring some genuine industry collaboration or government regulation. If Napster and iTunes were a consumer paradise, Vudu/Ultraviolet/Amazon Instant Video/Google Play/Flixster/iTunes/Netflix/Hulu/Microsoft is a consumer nightmare.

User avatar
tenia
Ask Me About My Bassoon
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 11:13 am

Re: The Future of Home Video

#235 Post by tenia » Sun Dec 27, 2015 6:24 am

Consumers reaction will be "what's HDR ?" And then "oh that's it ?"
Remember they already have over contrasted picture on their non calibrated at all displays. :D

User avatar
Trees
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#236 Post by Trees » Sun Dec 27, 2015 6:35 am

The future of home film distribution is file-based. There might be one more round of optical-disc-based content, like 4K Blu-ray, but after that, it's likely to be nearly 100% file-based.

User avatar
RossyG
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:50 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#237 Post by RossyG » Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:07 am

Will 4K downloads be a thing anytime soon or would that just require too much bandwidth?

User avatar
Trees
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#238 Post by Trees » Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:26 am

RossyG wrote:Will 4K downloads be a thing anytime soon or would that just require too much bandwidth?
Netflix is already streaming 4K. Right now, it's still pretty early times for 4K file-based downloads, but internet speeds are always getting faster, and compression algorithms have made major strides in the last year, so it's only a matter of time. Because the average file size needed for 4K, even highly compressed with new algorithms, is at least 20GB, we may see one more iteration of optical-disc-based media (4K blu-ray), though it may be simultaneous with the expansion and final takeover of internet-served, file-based home distribution for films, and these 4K blu-rays will almost certainly never reach the popularity or market saturation of 1080p Blu-ray. There is little to no chance that we will get two more generations of optical discs... the days of the optical disc are numbered.

User avatar
MichaelB
Joined: Fri Aug 11, 2006 6:20 pm
Location: Worthing
Contact:

Re: The Future of Home Video

#239 Post by MichaelB » Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:01 am

Trees wrote:There is little to no chance that we will get two more generations of optical discs... the days of the optical disc are numbered.
I suspect optical discs will become the equivalent of vinyl in that there'll always be a market for connoisseurs who appreciate lovingly curated and packaged physical objects.

But we will inevitably see an increase in limited editions and more realistic pricing - which is already happening across multiple labels. From the label's point of view it's a constant balancing act, which is why we regularly see very public recalibrations of various business models - but they are all tending to point in the same general direction.

User avatar
RossyG
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:50 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#240 Post by RossyG » Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:36 am

Thanks, Trees. Very interesting. I had no idea 4K streaming exists. Maybe we haven't got it yet in the UK.

I'll be happy to switch to 4K downloads, but I also agree with Michale that there'll still be discs for the collectors markets. I don't think Criterion, MoC, or Arrow need have much worry about going out of business.

User avatar
Trees
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#241 Post by Trees » Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:11 am

I agree. People who love to collect and have built up cherished collections are not suddenly going to be left out in the cold. For many of these much older films, honestly, you are never really going to see more resolution than 1080p.

Having said that, as time goes on and more and more sales go digital and file-based, there is nothing stopping Criterion from offering up some unique and world-class filed-based download packs, as an alternative to physical media. For example, you might pay $24.99 to Criterion and you get a beautiful, state-of-the-art encoding via a super-fast and legal download link to a folder that includes the movie and all kinds of extras. To me, if I was offered such a package right now for Edward Yang's A Brighter Summer Day, for example, I would jump all over it, since I am no longer much of a physical media collector and this might get the movie into my hands two or three days faster than the mail! \:D/

As 4K becomes more popular, Criterion is actually in a good position to capitalize. Many of the digital intermediates they have done recently were 4K scans, so I imagine it will not be too hard to pull the trigger for 4K releases once the market is ready, especially if they are already starting to think ahead in such ways. There will also be much restoration work needed for new 4K renders, and this is another of Criterion's specialties.

User avatar
colinr0380
Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:30 pm
Location: Chapel-en-le-Frith, Derbyshire, UK

Re: The Future of Home Video

#242 Post by colinr0380 » Sun Dec 27, 2015 1:20 pm

The main thing that worries me about that turn of events (apart from using up all of my monthly internet allocation on one film!) is how region coding would get adapted to streaming. After all even now without VPN devices there would be no way to watch Hulu films, and I presume having to sign up for a subscription would be the first and easiest stage of checking whether you were accessing content from the correct territory or not!

onedimension
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:35 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#243 Post by onedimension » Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:26 am

Trees, I don't understand how you're talking about "file-based" and "streaming", because there seems to be a tension between a 1-time download and 'owning' of a file you save on your own storage and cloud-stored 'streaming' of a file hosted somewhere else. There are quality differences, storage cost differences, reliability/ownership differences..

Disney actually has a great DisneyAnywhere program where you can link an account with Disney digital copies to virtually every major streaming/content service (iTunes, Vudu, Google Play, Amazon, Microsoft). That seems like the ideal for content providers and consumers to strive for..

I'd also say it's an oversimplification that Internet speeds are 'always getting faster', both because they're not, really, in any meaningful way, but also because I'd wager that cable companies, who own and provide content themselves, know on some level that by investing in truly high-speed networks, they'll be making streaming (and illegal sharing) of movies even more prevalent. File-based film distribution is a much different conversation if you can download a blu ray file in five seconds..

User avatar
Lemmy Caution
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:26 am
Location: East of Shanghai

Re: The Future of Home Video

#244 Post by Lemmy Caution » Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:46 am

onedimension wrote: I'd also say it's an oversimplification that Internet speeds are 'always getting faster', both because they're not, really, in any meaningful way.
In my case, my high-speed internet connection has gotten progressively worse for the last 5 years or more, to the point where Shanghai now has the slowest internet speed in all of China (behind Tibet and Xinjiang even).
The problem seems to be the vast number of people who now have broadband and use it to stream movies and tv programs, play online games, download films, etc. When I first got broadband in Shanghai, it was fast and cheap. Now it's pretty slow and bad. And for whatever reason the promised upgrades either don't occur or perhaps just get absorbed by the traffic.

A few years ago they offered a free upgrade to a high-speed fiber optic line. So I had a maintenance guy come out and hook me up. But it did nada, as now I might be fast from my computer to the street, but data is still strangled by the congested network.

As for the US, the monopolies enjoyed by most cable providers means there's little competitive pressure to upgrade internet speeds, and as 1D mentions, fast speeds might even conflict with their program based tv business model and even phone service. For the most part US broadband prices are higher and speeds are slower than throughout Western Europe, where competition is the norm.

User avatar
Trees
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#245 Post by Trees » Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:01 am

Without getting too far out into the weeds on the topic of internet speeds, the general trend has been toward faster speeds. See this article regarding USA internet speeds, for example: http://www.cartesian.com/us-broadband-s ... -annually/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Google fiber is now starting to put big pressure on ISPs.

In terms of streaming vs download, I myself prefer to download most media and keep it on a drive or laptop. When you talk about 1080p and 4K video, streaming can be frustrating. In an ideal world, you buy media and you have a choice to download and/or stream it at any time.

User avatar
colinr0380
Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:30 pm
Location: Chapel-en-le-Frith, Derbyshire, UK

Re: The Future of Home Video

#246 Post by colinr0380 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:05 am

I was going to ask whether the US situation had changed much since the Super Bunnyhop video a couple of years ago, but it doesn't sound to be the case!

onedimension
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:35 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#247 Post by onedimension » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:02 am

Trees wrote:Without getting too far out into the weeds on the topic of internet speeds, the general trend has been toward faster speeds. See this article regarding USA internet speeds, for example: http://www.cartesian.com/us-broadband-s ... -annually/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Google fiber is now starting to put big pressure on ISPs.

In terms of streaming vs download, I myself prefer to download most media and keep it on a drive or laptop. When you talk about 1080p and 4K video, streaming can be frustrating. In an ideal world, you buy media and you have a choice to download and/or stream it at any time.
That's the general trend, but we still lag behind other developed countries, partly because it's easier and cheaper to wire a small, dense nation than a large, dispersed one. The increase is nothing to brag about..

Regarding the self-hosting, remember that an album might be 25-50 megabytes, a blu ray is 25-50 gigabytes - one gigabyte = 1000 megabytes. So in addition to Internet speeds increasingly incrementally, hard disk storage hasn't followed Moore's Law, either- you can have spacious and sluggish or small and fast at a reasonable price, with about 3-4 terabytes the maximum for a typical consumer drive. That's about 80 movies. And without a cloud 'matching' option, they last as long as your hard drive does.

Even if home storage becomes feasible, it's also against the streaming tide, which is also about omnipresent access- any tv, any device, any mobile device.

Another problem to consider is that we've seen with Criterion how tricky rights situations can be, and at least an OOP disc can be watched or sold- if a streaming copy goes "OOP" because of a rights lapse or transfer, customers are out of luck.

I can imagine a consumer-friendly solution- ownership across multiple services, like Disney Anywhere, able to be stored and re-downloaded, with a ripped disc granting equivalency to digital ownership, like iTunes Match, with access in perpetuity and refunds if any title goes 'out of print' for any reason,- but I can't imagine industry powers-that-be uniting behind a common digital standard any more readily than they did for blu ray vs HD-DVD...

User avatar
TMDaines
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:01 pm
Location: Stretford, Manchester

Re: The Future of Home Video

#248 Post by TMDaines » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:56 am

Your consumer-friendly solution still sounds like a nightmare. I doubt the industry will ever have a reasonable approach to digital media. There's enough people paying for below-par, above-board streaming services and overpriced ad hoc download options to make them worthwhile. Heck, I'm paying for Amazon Prime and have probably watched ten films on it in the last year. Of my 500+ titles on my IMDb watchlist, less than 40 are available on there; the vast majority in hideous quality and without subtitles.

Anyone who wants more than what the big companies offer will eventually find a world beyond them by finding alternate sources online or speaking to others.

calculus entrophy
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:32 am

Re: The Future of Home Video

#249 Post by calculus entrophy » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:41 pm

Perhaps someone more knowledgeable about the technology behind Netflix 4k can help. Uncompressed DVD requires from 6 - 12 megabit per sec and uncompressed 1080p blu rays a la Criterion require 25 - 35 megabits per sec. This is confirmed by viewing my Plex information while watching in real time. In RARE cases, it spikes and even then causes 1080p uncompressed blu ray files to buffer on a home GIG LAN.

I was really wondering how Netflix is going to get 4k to the home via streaming across the internet without lowering the data rate through compression, which would degrade the quality they are calling 4k. Netflix 4k FAQ says that their 4k requires 25 megabit per sec. Something seems off. My experience with Netflix is that they are further compressing the material upon delivery. Isn't 4k going to require more bandwidth? Is it still 4k if it is compressed?

Can anyone clarify? Up until now, I saw a major difference in quality between my home-ripped blu and what Netflix terms "HD" when comparing the same content side by side.

User avatar
fdm
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2006 1:25 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#250 Post by fdm » Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:59 pm

I haven't paid a whole lot of attention, but my understanding is that compression has "improved" somewhat since original blu-ray days, so 4K blu-ray will not require correspondingly as much disc space as regular blu-ray does.

Bear in mind that everything that goes to disc is compressed in some manner, at least for the video portion. And similarly everything that goes over the wire will likely have some additional compression, so picture quality will usually suffer some when streamed rather than played from its corresponding disc equivalent.

(Not sure how clear that came out, but there you go, sans the math.)

Post Reply