Awards Season 2023

[therewillbeblus]

Probably as good a time as ever to (re?)announce: We're doing a friendly Oscar Predix Contest again this year! Very few people have chimed in about preferences for scoring, so I'm just gonna throw out an idea, and anyone who knows more about math/scoring (or just has another strong preference) and can say why this idea could be improved upon, please feel free to post publicly or privately. [Full transparency: I just C+P'd DarkImbecile's nomination scoring post from the other year (thanks!), and upped the last tier to make things (so very slightly) more interesting.]

Winners
5 POINTS: Picture, Director, All Acting Categories, Screenplays

3 POINTS: International Feature, Cinematography, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Editing, Sound, Costume, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects

2 POINTS: Song, Animated Short, Documentary Short, Live Action Short

Please make sure you have your predictions for each category posted in this thread (or PM'd to me, if you wanna keep it like a secret) by day of ceremony, so before 7pm Sunday March 10. Happy to make the deadline earlier if someone wants to advocate for it

The winner will be named after the ceremony, and should have a film ready to ask the participating forum members to see sometime within the week following the awards show. The losing participating members can watch and write anything about the film at your convenience over the next year (but it would be cool to get something going quicker for obvious reasons.. motivation, memory, enthusiasm).

*Members have expressed interest in picking a future 2024 release for everyone to comment on after its release, which is allowed (though if you choose to this please be mindful of accessibility, timing, public theatre comfort levels following covid/theatrical and streaming date gap, etc.)

[Mr Sausage]

*Members have expressed interest in picking a future 2024 release for everyone to comment on after its release, which is allowed (though if you choose to this please be mindful of accessibility, timing, public theatre comfort levels following covid/theatrical and streaming date gap, etc.)

If enough people are genuinely up for this, I can easily run it in the old film club subforum. This can include a thread and/or poll for choosing a film and a dedicated discussion thread.

[therewillbeblus]

Ryan Gosling will perform "I'm Just Ken" at the ceremony

[knives]

Nice. I know it’s Eilish who is going to win, but I honestly don’t remember her song from the film while I’m just Ken was practically the song of the summer in my household (and the shirts of many of the students I see suggests that wasn’t a lone situation).

[Matt]

Oscars: Five Past Winners Will Introduce Current Nominees in All Four Acting Categories

Not to jinx anything, but it would be pretty cool to see Da’Vine Joy Randolph (or Danielle Brooks) get an Oscar from Whoopi Goldberg, Viola Davis, Mo’Nique, Octavia Spencer, and Regina King (though Jamie Lee Curtis and Lupita Nyong’o have already been confirmed as presenters).

[Matt]

The Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots are back, Heaven help us

[swo17]

Best Live-Action Short

I don’t think that Wes Anderson [director of The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar] belongs in this category, and I’d have said the same thing about Pedro Almodóvar [director of Strange Way of Life] if he had been nominated — and he keeps trying. It’s a category that’s intended for new filmmakers, and a nomination can provide them with opportunities that they’d never get without this spotlight, so it’s selfish for these big filmmakers to be taking spots from them. Now, if a new filmmaker can convince a famous actor to produce or be in their short, like David Oyelowo with The After, more power to them. That was beautifully done.

Ah yes, selfish, frequent Academy Award winner Wes Anderson, brazenly making short films just to silence the next generation

[domino harvey]

I do I think there’s a much higher chance Anderson doesn’t win than has been speculated, but of course this category does not in fact mean they claim it does. It just doesn’t make sense in the way it used to when block booking meant you needed a lot of stuff to fill the screen

[hearthesilence]

Maybe someone with more expertise with shorts can answer, but I was under the impression that the category has rarely been a pure, idyllic entry point for new filmmakers to break into the industry, that it's always been impacted by smaller (but still resourceful and comparatively well-funded) studios like HBO in the way the documentary categories have been, and the projects they put up for "best short film" often involve established successes in the entertainment industry, whether it's an actor, a comedian, etc.

(Also on a tangent, this brings to mind one of my favorite acceptance jokes, courtesy of Best Live Action Short winner Steven Wright.)

[swo17]

The real reason Henry Sugar shouldn't win is that it's a feature-length anthology film that Netflix broke up into pieces to increase its awards chances (which of course worked)

[therewillbeblus]

*Members have expressed interest in picking a future 2024 release for everyone to comment on after its release, which is allowed (though if you choose to this please be mindful of accessibility, timing, public theatre comfort levels following covid/theatrical and streaming date gap, etc.)

If enough people are genuinely up for this, I can easily run it in the old film club subforum. This can include a thread and/or poll for choosing a film and a dedicated discussion thread.

Thanks for volunteering to help! And if people are burnt out on movies and have an anime series or show or miniseries they want people to watch, that's fine too. Obviously asking the forum to watch all of Games of Thrones might not be in the spirit of time-sensitive digestibility, but it's really going to come down to what people are passionate about.

I'd like to make the "prize" more elastic to potentially reinforce motivation: The winner can just recommend a piece of any art for the other participants to consume? It would actually be pretty cool if someone is more passionate about an album/artist that they feel could use more exposure, and we can listen and discuss it (or just chime in with a sentence if you don't know what else to say other than if you liked it or not!) in one of the music threads. I'd watch a dance performance or dig into fashion resources that someone provided, or read an article or essay or short story to discuss in a non-political new thread or something, etc. Be creative if you wish, we're all here because we love to experience art.

This is extremely informal and nobody 'has' to do anything. It's just fun to post picks, and maybe get a chance to spotlight something you're keeping to yourself that we might all enjoy! I'm willing to take feedback on any and all ideas, but the point is to make this less rigid and create flexibility that may entice more people to participate. I don't want any member to hesitate to submit a ballot because of some imaginary stressor attached to participation. I was a shy, anxious lurker for a significant chunk of my time on this board, so I'm not coming after anybody if they're uncomfortable with, or don't want to do the homework.

[therewillbeblus]

In a week we'll know, so here we go. My predictions:

SpoilerShow

Picture
Oppenheimer

Director
Christopher Nolan

Actress
Emma Stone

Actor
Cillian Murphy

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr.

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction

Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall

International Feature
The Zone of Interest

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol

Cinematography
Oppenheimer

Film Editing
Oppenheimer

Sound
Zone of Interest

Costume Design
Barbie

Makeup and Hair
Poor Things

Original Score
Oppenheimer

Production Design
Poor Things

Visual Effects
Godzilla Minus One

Original Song
Barbie ("What Was I Made For?" - Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)

Live Action Short
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Animated Short
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning

I may revise this up to an hour before the ceremony, and you can too (7pm EST on Sun the 10th) either in this thread or PM me

[soundchaser]

WGA being so late this year makes things a little trickier, and there are some below-the-line categories that I'll probably screw up; but at the end of the day, I'm ready to play it as safe as humanly possible based on the precursors:

SpoilerShow

Best Picture
Oppenheimer

Best Director
Christopher Nolan

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr.

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone

Best Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Cinematography
Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design
Poor Things

Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning

Best Editing
Oppenheimer

Best International Feature
The Zone of Interest

Best Makeup
Poor Things

Best Original Score
Oppenheimer

Best Original Song
What Was I Made For?

Best Production Design
Barbie

Best Animated Short
War is Over!

Best Live-Action Short
Henry Sugar

Best Sound
Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects
The Creator

[Pavel]

Haven’t been very active on here lately, but always have to chime in to the Oscar game!

SpoilerShow

Best Picture
Oppenheimer

Best Director
Christopher Nolan

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr.

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone

Best Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron

Best Cinematography
Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design
Barbie

Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning

Best Editing
Oppenheimer

Best International Feature
The Zone of Interest

Best Makeup
Maestro

Best Original Score
Oppenheimer

Best Original Song
What Was I Made For?

Best Production Design
Poor Things

Best Animated Short
War is Over!

Best Live-Action Short
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Sound
The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects
Godzilla Minus One

I too will probably revise some of these in the coming days, especially if I lose faith in Zone for Sound and Miyazaki for Animated

[TechnicolorAcid]

Sir Oscar Cinephile’s TimesShow

Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Best Director: Christopher Nolan
Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Best International Feature Film: The Zone of Interest
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar
Best Animated Short: The War Is Over
Best Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
Best Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop
Best Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Original Song: What Was I Made For?
Best Score: Oppenheimer
Best Makeup: Maestro
Best Costume Design: Barbie
Best Editing: Oppenheimer
Best Sound: Oppenheimer
Best Production Design: Barbie
Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

[Never Cursed]

Never Cursed predics and picks. Except where indicated, I have seen everything nominated in all categories:

SpoilerShow

Picture:

Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things
Worst in category: Maestro

Director:

Will win: Christopher Nolan
Should win: Yorgos Lanthimos
Worst in category: Justine Triet (the least of 5 good options)

Actor:

Will win: Cillian Murphy
Should win: Cillian Murphy
Worst in category: Jeffrey Wright is the least interesting, Bradley Cooper the most batshit, Colman Domingo in the worst movie

Actress:

Will win: Emma Stone
Should win: Emma Stone
Worst in category: Annette Benning

Sup. Actor:

Will win: Robert Downey, Jr.
Should win: Mark Ruffalo
Worst in category: Sterling K. Brown

Sup. Actress:

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Worst in category: Jodie Foster gives the worst performance, Danielle Brooks is the most poorly used

Original Screenplay:

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: The Holdovers
Worst in category: Maestro

Adapted Screenplay:

Will win: American Fiction
Should win: Poor Things
Worst in category: American Fiction

Animated Feature:

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should win: The Boy and the Heron
Worst in category: N/A

International Feature:

Will win: The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Worst film: Society of The Snow

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning

Live-Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

Original Score:

Will win: Ludwig Göransson
Should win: Jerskin Fendrix
Worst in category: Laura Karpman (haven't heard John Williams' score for Indiana Jones 5)

Original Song:

Will win: Billie Eilish and Finneas
Should win: Scott George
Worst in category: Everyone that is not Scott George

Sound:

Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Oppenheimer
Worst in category: Maestro

Production Design:

Will win: Barbie
Should win: Poor Things
Worst in category: Napoleon, probably

Cinematography:

Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things
Worst in category: Maestro, but to no fault of Matthew Libatique

Makeup and Hair:

Will win: Maestro
Should win: Poor Things
Worst in category: All efforts to make actors look Jewish, but because it looks bad, not because it's offensive

Costume Design:

Will win: Barbie
Should win: Poor Things:
Worst in category: Napoleon

Editing:

Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things
Worst in category: Anatomy of a Fall (again, least of 5 good options)

Visual Effects:

Will win: Godzilla Minus One
Should win: N/A
Worst in category: N/A

[bottlesofsmoke]

My stone cold, lead pipe locks

SpoilerShow

Best Picture
Oppenheimer

Best Director
Christopher Nolan

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr.

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone

Best Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall

Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron

Best International Feature
The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Short
Our Uniform

Best Live-Action Short
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning

Best Original Song
“What Was I Made For?”

Best Editing
Oppenheimer

Best Cinematography
Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design
Barbie

Best Makeup
Poor Things

Best Original Score
Oppenheimer

Best Production Design
Poor Things

Best Sound
Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects
The Creator

[Apperson]

My 100% Accurate PredictionsShow

Picture: Oppenheimer

Director: Christopher Nolan

Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy- Oppenheimer

Lead Actress: Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower Moon

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr.- Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph- The Holdovers

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

International Feature: The Zone of Interest

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Barbie

Costume Design: Barbie

Makeup and Hair-styling: Maestro

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: 'What Was I Made For'- Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus-One

Live-Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Animated Short: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko (Insert dismissive jerk-off motions here)

Documentary Short: Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

[domino harvey]

SpoilerShow

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Nolan
Best Actor: Giamatti
Best Actress: Huller
Best Sup Actor: Ruffalo
Best Sup Actress: Randolph
Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
International Feature: Zone of Interest
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature: Spider-Man
Documentary Feature: Four Daughters
Editing: Oppenheimer
Sound: Zone of Interest
Costume: Poor Things
Makeup/Hair: Poor Things
Score: American Fiction
Production Design: Poor Things
Visual Effects: Godzilla
Song: I’m Just Ken
Animated Short: War is over!
Documentary Short: ABCs of Book Banning
Live Action Short: Red, White, and Blue

[lacritfan]

Predix

SpoilerShow

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actor: Cillian Murphy
Actress: Lily Gladstone
Sup Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Sup Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay: Barbie
International Feature: Zone of Interest
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Barbie
Editing: Oppenheimer
Score: Oppenheimer
Costume: Barbie
Sound: Oppenheimer
Makeup/Hair: Maestro
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
Song: What Was I Made For?
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Animated Short: War is over!
Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop
Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

[Toland's Mitchell]

SpoilerShow

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actor: Paul Giamatti
Actress: Lily Gladstone
Supporting Actor: RDJ
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
International Feature: Zone of Interest
Animated Feature: Spider-Verse 2
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning
Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Animated Short: Letter to a Pig
Original Score: Oppenheimer
Original Song: What Was I Made For
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Poor Things
Sound: Oppenheimer
Editing: Oppenheimer
Makeup and Hairstyling: Poor Things
VFX: Godzilla Minus One
Costume Design: Barbie

[Altair]

My predictionsShow

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Nolan
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Sup Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Sup Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
International Feature: The Zone of Interest
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Editing: Oppenheimer
Sound: Oppenheimer
Costume: Poor Things
Makeup/Hair: Poor Things
Score: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Poor Things
Visual Effects: The Creator
Song: What Was I Made For?
Animated Short: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning
Live Action Short: Red, White, and Blue

[DeParis]

My predictions. Will be interesting to see if there are any big upsets.

SpoilerShow

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actress: Sandra Huller
Actor: Cillian Murphy
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Costume Design: Poor Things
Film Editing: Oppenheimer
Makeup and Hair: Poor Things
Production Design: Poor Things
Score: Oppenheimer
Song: What Was I Made For?
Sound: The Zone of Interest
Visual Effects: The Creator
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol
International Film: The Zone of Interest
Animated Short: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning
Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

[therewillbeblus]

Just confirming that nobody has emailed/PM'd me a list - I count 12 participants so far, including myself, all public in spoilerboxes in this thread. If you are trying to PM me but I'm not getting your message, just say so here. Feel free to keep posting til 7.

Edit: I'm creating the spreadsheet now and entering guesses as-they-are. I can check time-stamps and re-review lists independently, but at this point if you're going to make changes, please just shoot me a PM if you don't mind, saying what you changed. It would make my life a lot easier. Thanks!

[Grand Wazoo]

Playing it way too safe

SpoilerShow

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actress: Lily Gladstone
Actor: Cillian Murphy
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Costume Design: Poor Things
Film Editing: Oppenheimer
Makeup and Hair: Poor Things
Production Design: Poor Things
Score: Oppenheimer
Song: What Was I Made For?
Sound: The Zone of Interest
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol
International Film: The Zone of Interest
Animated Short: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning
Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar