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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:17 pm 
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It’s on a slight rebound presumably on the tails of its home video/on demand release but it had absolutely been slipping precipitously down. I’d say it’s tied for consensus Best Picture frontrunner with the Post. But without any actors or the writing getting much support I can see it slipping further.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:35 pm 

Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:47 pm
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I would say that Dunkirk started slipping on its weakness in the screenplay and acting categories which pushed it down the rankings in Best Picture predictions.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:39 pm 
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Oscars, especially after last year, are feeling pretty zeitgeist-y this year, which leaves Dunkirk out in favor of things like, well, all the other frontrunners


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 Post subject: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:42 pm 
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It is a weird year, the bait products looking for awards don’t seem tremendously must see this year, no film has really separated from the pack although lady bird has built up slowly and may be the film that fills the vacuum and reaps the rewards from doing so, while the best of the products that large audiences have attended (get out, beauty and the beast, Wonder Woman, it, Star Wars ) are remarkably excellent and in my personal opinion more worthy than a lot of the bait products that’s been released this year.

But I actually think a lot of that overall atmosphere this year is an overreaction by the publicists hawking the product to moonlight winning. No film wants to become a front runner and immediately be doomed for the rest of the season as a result.

It’s the problem with instant runoff voting, it’s very easy for everyone to try and game the system with simple strategies. This year all the publicists are probably hawking their clients the strategy of “we will be everyone’s number two and three and no ones eight or nine and we will win just like birdman or moonlight, we don’t want to be la la land or gravity or the revenant where being the most popular overall and also being more disliked by a small minority caused them to lose best picture in spite of winning all the awards given to most popular.”

I imagine there’s a decent amount of market research on these awards behaviors, I imagine la la land was not viewed unfavorably until it got too many nominations. Overperforming with nominations volume caused a bunch of people to immediately scorn the film and determine sight unseen that it was overrated and unworthy.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:50 pm 
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I’m pretty confident that if the Academy is starting to go away from picking safe “Oscar bait” films to going in a bit of an edgier route (like Moonlight) that Get Out will win this year.

It has tremendous popularity and critical acclaim, it’s an important film, it has a SAG Ensemble nomination and will probably get Best Original Screenplay (both very important to winning Best Picture) and will probably fare well at the Globes and Guild Awards.

If going by the stipulation that Best Picture winners usually always get a Screenplay award and SAG Ensemble nomination, then I could also see Three Billboards possibly winning, but Get Out seems like the better bet.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:51 pm 
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Other than the academy being like 70% dudes, I’d say lady bird is the favorite, but even in the wake of moonlight, expecting the academy to pick a film like lady bird seems like a big reach. I’d love it if they did, though.

If the post manages to stay eight or under in nominations and not rack up too many guild awards, it could easily win the battle for second place.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:05 pm 
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But it’s not a battle for second place - it’s a battle for second place on the ballots of those who voted for the film to get the least amount of support for #1 as those are whose ballots are thrown out. People who liked Fences or Hell or High Water likely opted for Moonlight before La La Land last year and that threw it over. Which is... Darkest Hour? Presumably those people would like Dunkirk.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:19 pm 
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I think Dunkirk's fortunes may rise post nominations and I could easily seeing it return as a consensus pick. But Get Out does seem to be on a Silence of the Lambs path to the win. However, it too may be hurt by a lack of acting credentials. Ironically, Get Out may win Best Picture in a year where there's a nonzero chance of having another Oscarsowhite slew of acting nominees (though Kaluuya and Washington are both hovering around nominations, and someone of color will probably be nommed in Supporting Actress).


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:47 pm 
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Kaluuya does absolutely nothing in the main role, him getting a nom would be a real indication of love from the Academy for the film (which I also think will end up winning Best Pic). If they're going to nominate anyone from the film, why not nominate the comic relief TSA friend for Best Supporting Actor?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:51 pm 
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I substantially disagree with the idea that he doesn’t do anything with that role - he gives the film’s best and most convincing (and convincingly terrified) performance, and one of the most memorable in any film this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:56 pm 
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k


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:01 pm 
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Yeah, though I agree a nod for him (and Peele, which while likely doesn’t seem totally locked) would be a good sign regarding enthusiasm for BP the idea it’s essentially a nothing part is a new one to me. On the other hand, should OscarsSoWhite happen again Get Out’s chances will blossom to frontrunner almost immediately (almost certainly won’t happen, as weirdly Mudbound’s looking like a lock for the Supporting Actress nod, even though that always struck me as a potentially volatile slot to be spoiled by a late comer).


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:04 pm 
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Spencer and Chau are also likely in Supporting Actress, and I can't help but doubt anyone from Netflix is getting in, regardless of pundit predix


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:11 pm 
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Maybe I’m crazy, but even though I didn’t care for Shape of Water at all I’m really rooting for Octavia Spencer to be nominated for a really good, funny performance that’s probably the film’s highlight. But it lacks practically any big dramatic monologue moment so might not have that hook to get the votes needed.

I deeply believe the Academy should, like with their declaration about miniseries being ineligible earlier this year, just make a basic declaration that all films released straight to streaming are immediately ineligible for any Oscars or something like that. Netflix wouldn’t stop their disruption model and will just keep on keeping on, but it’d be an effective slap-in-the-face. The fact they weren’t able to mount a campaign for Sandler to even get Globes nominated is a total joke.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:28 pm 
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I'd like to see more films committed to legitimate social concerns winning rather than ones that make those in power feel good. Can you imagine if Paul Haggis made Crash today?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:29 pm 
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mfunk9786 wrote:
I substantially disagree with the idea that he doesn’t do anything with that role - he gives the film’s best and most convincing (and convincingly terrified) performance, and one of the most memorable in any film this year.

Yeah, who else could have brought that glassy-eyed hypnotized stare? Can't teach that.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:33 pm 
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Brian C wrote:
mfunk9786 wrote:
I substantially disagree with the idea that he doesn’t do anything with that role - he gives the film’s best and most convincing (and convincingly terrified) performance, and one of the most memorable in any film this year.

Yeah, who else could have brought that glassy-eyed hypnotized stare? Can't teach that.


Kaluuya was hired because he was the only person to cry during all the audition takes. That's literally why Peele hired him.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:20 pm 
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I think Kaluuya gives a good performance, but it's very lowkey. It's in the quiet way he tries shove off awkward social situations with forced smiles and shrugs. And there's something to be said for his ability to make what could easily look goofy feel legitimately unsettling. That said, it is in no way your stand Oscar performance; it's not big, there's no big speech and indeed very little dialogue, and any grand "acting" moments are genre-based, meaning the Academy generally doesn't care. I figured that and his young age would get him passed over, but it seems the general popularity of the film could garner him a nom.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:55 pm 
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Big Ben wrote:
I'd like to see more films committed to legitimate social concerns winning rather than ones that make those in power feel good. Can you imagine if Paul Haggis made Crash today?
It would still be terrible and undeserving of any acclaim or awards?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:08 pm 
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Werewolf by Night wrote:
Big Ben wrote:
I'd like to see more films committed to legitimate social concerns winning rather than ones that make those in power feel good. Can you imagine if Paul Haggis made Crash today?
It would still be terrible and undeserving of any acclaim or awards?


Certainly so. But it would be under significantly more scrutiny now than it was then. My point/hope is that the films pining for Oscars with half assed attempts at social commentary are under more scrutiny now with social media and so forth. A diverse range of nominees is never a bad thing in my opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:58 am 
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I'm stunned by the praise being lavished on The Post... I think people are treating it for the movie they want it to be rather than what it actually is. I'd be surprised if it's not Get Out's year, but Lady Bird has been so popular, been such a feel good movie that when you combine it with Gerwig's team doing a masterful job promoting the movie/her it wouldn't shock me if it won. If that happens my head will no doubt explode, but hey look at the world we live in.

Also keep in mind that academy voters are a lot different this year than in past years and that's sure to help both movies' chances.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:40 am 
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domino harvey wrote:
k

Not trying to pick a fight but I'm just getting back from vacation and finding this (the merits of a performance that I'm not alone in thinking is very strong) a very unusual thing to be so pithy about!


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:44 am 
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Literally anyone could have played that role and brought the same nothingness to it. Every other speaking part in the movie is a better performance


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:47 am 
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To state it like it's fact is par for the course for sharing one's opinion with the writing style on this forum especially, but responding to a dissention from that opinion with one letter is a needlessly shitty thing for someone to have to see. But... k!


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 Post subject: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:21 pm 
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Are you serious? You’re complaining about someone stating an opinion as if it was fact?


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