Awards Season 2017

Discuss films of the 21st century including current cinema, current filmmakers, and film festivals.
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movielocke
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#76 Post by movielocke » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm

hmm, well this is an interesting year in that there does not seem to be much passion for any particular films really cohering into a strong awards narrative. If the Post is the film to do that, it would be an unusual development, as the academy generally shuns such major studio product when awarding Best Picture. In the past ten years (only Argo and Departed won from major studios, every other best picture was a boutique awards company product release)

However it is a Spielberg film, so it is swimming uphill in terms of actually winning. Because of him, there will be an inevitable backlash that will probably be larger in scale than the typical front-runner backlash that happens every year.
Last edited by movielocke on Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Big Ben
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#77 Post by Big Ben » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:16 pm

Given a certain administrations reliance on attempting to call any reporting it doesn't like "fake news" I can totally see The Post winning based on animosity alone. We all know how the Academy loves timely things. That being said I would much prefer Get Out or The Big Sick.

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hearthesilence
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#78 Post by hearthesilence » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:24 pm

I'm sure The Post will do very well. It'll be impressive if it goes all the way, especially in light of Spotlight's big win - the Oscars always have had a soft spot for big films about journalism and journalistic endeavors (Network, All the President's Men, Capote, Good Night, Good Luck, The Insider...of course Sam Fuller gets ignored altogether).

FWIW, I'm looking at the tweets gushing over this and they're coming from critics who are already the type to gush over Spielberg in general. Just look at the way they frame their praise. "Spielberg does it again!" "Great this-and-that, as always in a Spielberg film!" "Best since Munich!" One guy is not sure he'd say it's as great as The Paper (Ron Howard's film?) or Lincoln. I don't think either of those films are great.

I imagine if you're a longtime skeptic, you won't be as enthusiastic. In fact, one tweet actually criticizes it for becoming corny about 2/3 of the way in.

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Fiery Angel
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#79 Post by Fiery Angel » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:31 pm

Big Ben wrote:Given a certain administrations reliance on attempting to call any reporting it doesn't like "fake news" I can totally see The Post winning based on animosity alone. We all know how the Academy loves timely things. That being said I would much prefer Get Out or The Big Sick.
Have you seen The Post?

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Ribs
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#80 Post by Ribs » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:43 pm

I feel that the fact the Academy historically has been Spielberg skeptic can easily be pivoted into a narrative of him being overdue/taken for granted (the same is true of Hanks, who’s not been nominated since 2000). Similarly I think it’s actually a bit understated that the new Academy membership, while possibly liking slightly more radical filmmaking, probably think much more of Spielberg as the generation that grew up with his films then his contemporaries who still think he ruined Hollywood do.

Bridge of Spies mostly avoided the backlash, as did BFG (though no one saw the latter). Ready Player One is coming three weeks after the Oscars and has already caused an absolute firestorm of people who clearly have not watched a Spielberg movie in decades assuming he’s not taking any kind of critical angle on the nostalgia baked into the premise that he’s spent almost his entire career at this point running from. The Post won’t avoid backlash, as no movie can (Lady Bird will not stay at 100 forever - it’s a mathematic impossibility with how many critics submit their scores to RT now). But I think it has a confluence of strong narratives (lest we forget, the only thing that matters in the Oscars) that really only is matched by Lady Bird at the moment (we’re still early into an Olympics-prolonger season, so who knows if Dunkirk will suddenly seem relevant for a reason other than Nolan being overdue?)

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kcota17
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#81 Post by kcota17 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:49 pm

Ribs wrote:I feel that the fact the Academy historically has been Spielberg skeptic can easily be pivoted into a narrative of him being overdue/taken for granted (the same is true of Hanks, who’s not been nominated since 2000). Similarly I think it’s actually a bit understated that the new Academy membership, while possibly liking slightly more radical filmmaking, probably think much more of Spielberg as the generation that grew up with his films then his contemporaries who still think he ruined Hollywood do.

Bridge of Spies mostly avoided the backlash, as did BFG (though no one saw the latter). Ready Player One is coming three weeks after the Oscars and has already caused an absolute firestorm of people who clearly have not watched a Spielberg movie in decades assuming he’s not taking any kind of critical angle on the nostalgia baked into the premise that he’s spent almost his entire career at this point running from. The Post won’t avoid backlash, as no movie can (Lady Bird will not stay at 100 forever - it’s a mathematic impossibility with how many critics submit their scores to RT now). But I think it has a confluence of strong narratives (lest we forget, the only thing that matters in the Oscars) that really only is matched by Lady Bird at the moment (we’re still early into an Olympics-prolonger season, so who knows if Dunkirk will suddenly seem relevant for a reason other than Nolan being overdue?)
Call Me by Your Name and Three Billboards are also big shoes in as well. If we follow the Screenplay rule that usually occurs, I can see Get Out, Three Billboards and Lady Bird battling for Original Screenplay, abd CMBYN and The Post battling for Adapted.

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Ribs
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#82 Post by Ribs » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:52 pm

I think they have narratives, but I think The Post and Lady Bird have better ones. Billboards may find its best one (post-Weinstein angst) hijacked by the Post.

I wasn’t thinking about Get Out, which has a dynamite narrative to win but I’m still not totally sure if it’ll break through with a nomination. I’m super skeptical about whatever the earliest released “contender” is each year, more than most people, but I can very easily imagine it being passed over and an ensuing firestorm.

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Cremildo
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#83 Post by Cremildo » Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:30 pm

hearthesilence wrote:FWIW, I'm looking at the tweets gushing over this and they're coming from critics who are already the type to gush over Spielberg in general. Just look at the way they frame their praise. "Spielberg does it again!" "Great this-and-that, as always in a Spielberg film!" "Best since Munich!" One guy is not sure he'd say it's as great as The Paper (Ron Howard's film?) or Lincoln. I don't think either of those films are great.

I imagine if you're a longtime skeptic, you won't be as enthusiastic. In fact, one tweet actually criticizes it for becoming corny about 2/3 of the way in.
I find it strange that because those positive tweets allegedly come from the "type" of critics who "gush over Spielberg in general", they shouldn't be taken seriously. As in, only the Jonathan Rosenbaum-type of critics who piss over Spielberg in general are to be trusted. But I guess this is just one of those insular, self-consciously intellectual places where some users are shocked that there are critics who actually value his work and refuse to dismiss it because it's mainstream and popular.

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hearthesilence
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#84 Post by hearthesilence » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:49 pm

Yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Their opinions are absolute shit. No movie that makes money or appeals to the masses is anything worthwhile.

Give me a break. They released a trailer that didn’t look that good. I come here and see news that people are gushing over it. I check out what they write because maybe this will surprise me. I don’t see anything substantive, just broad praise that you’d expect from biased fans which they appear to be given the way they frame their words so naturally I’m going to be skeptical because I’ve gone through this MANY times for MANY films, hits, flops and award winners alike. If I wind up liking this a lot I’ll be more than happy to gush about it here, but I’m not going to love it just because it’s Spielberg.

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movielocke
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#85 Post by movielocke » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:59 pm

I still think it's weird we are post thanksgiving and there is no strong awards season narrative nor front runner going into the last couple weeks before nominations close for the guilds. It's a very odd year, the only enthusiasm I've heard for any film in months is for Coco. I wonder if it will get a BP nomination if the year is weak.
Last edited by movielocke on Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#86 Post by domino harvey » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:06 am

I think it's bizarre that people are acting like Get Out won't go the distance and score Director and Best Pic noms. I doubt it will win, but I've seen too many predix with Peele way down the list of possibilities-- this is this year's Mad Max et al

Coco is not getting a Best Pic nom, come on

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knives
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#87 Post by knives » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:08 am

Boosted by how unclear the year has been. I wouldn't be surprised if it actually managed to win Screenplay and Supporting Actress.

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#88 Post by mfunk9786 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:01 am

Laurie Metcalf in Supporting Actress is the biggest lock of any category

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Ribs
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#89 Post by Ribs » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:04 am

Oldman for Actor is throw away the key assuming he doesn't open his mouth about something stupid for the next three months (he probably will)

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Brian C
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#90 Post by Brian C » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:24 am

movielocke wrote:I still think it's weird we are post thanksgiving and there is no strong awards season narrative nor front runner going into the last couple weeks before nominations close for the guilds.
This is 100% speculation on my part, but I wonder if the industry as a whole is perhaps a bit gun shy publicity-wise in the wake of all the sexual misconduct scandals that have come out. No one wants to be in the middle of a big awards push and then, bam, the news hits one morning that the producer/director/star/editor/caterer/whoever is a sleazeball and now the whole movie is tanked by association.
domino harvey wrote:Coco is not getting a Best Pic nom, come on
Is this really that far-fetched? Pixar's scored Best Pic noms before. But then Lasseter, so maybe it is impossible.

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movielocke
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Awards Season 2017

#91 Post by movielocke » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:11 am

Brian C wrote:
movielocke wrote:I still think it's weird we are post thanksgiving and there is no strong awards season narrative nor front runner going into the last couple weeks before nominations close for the guilds.
Is this really that far-fetched? Pixar's scored Best Pic noms before. But then Lasseter, so maybe it is impossible.
It is very far fetched, Pixar only scored BP noms in the two years of ten nominees. During the rule change to variable # of nominees they also instituted a "number one vote threshold"

Because nominations are instant runoff they are easy to rig with bloc voting. Because animators are segregated from the industry they are both motivated and likely to utilize bloc voting.

they bloc voted the top of their ballots for the two years of ten nominees, resulting in two Pixar nominations because of the instant runoff.

The academy then set the threshold at the level they did because it will always be more than the size of the animation bloc to forestall the animation bloc from succeeding every year and getting an animated film nominated every year.

But it is also possible they didn't bloc vote, it just is a hypothesis that fits the evidence, after all.

It is also possible that the two films nominated received a reasonable number of number one votes from people in the animation wing but were also well liked and well respected enough to also garner a lot of lower ballot votes, so when ballots were redistributed and redivided in the instant runoff process the two Pixar films were steadily accruing votes every roundand avoiding elimination, even if they had relatively few number one votes (or fewer number one votes than many eliminated films). This hypothesis also fits the evidence, but it is less fun and conspiratorial.

If the latter is true it doesn't matter how popular the animated film is, it will never get nominated because it requires live action voters to put animated product at the top of their ballot rather than in the middle of their ballot.

That is to say if every voter who nominated the two Pixar films in the middle of their ballot repeats this year and nominates coco in the middle of their ballot, and coco gets the same number of number one votes as the other Pixar films got coco will still not be nominated.

Since live action voters are pursing their live action self interest, they won't put animated product at the top of their ballot except in exceptional circumstances where an incredible animated product serendipitously occurs in a year full of weak live action awards product.
Last edited by movielocke on Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:15 am, edited 2 times in total.

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The Narrator Returns
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#92 Post by The Narrator Returns » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:13 am

mfunk9786 wrote:Laurie Metcalf in Supporting Actress is the biggest lock of any category
I don't know if she's quite a lock yet (it would certainly delight me if that was the case), but her only competition is Allison Janney, and I can see I, Tonya turning off a lot of the Academy for its abrasiveness.

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#93 Post by mfunk9786 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:16 am

And crumminess.

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The Narrator Returns
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#94 Post by The Narrator Returns » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:24 am

That too, although god knows that hasn't affected the chances of other movies in the past.

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movielocke
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#95 Post by movielocke » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:07 pm

I was wondering about Spielberg, if The Post is the movie this year, his first nomination was for the 1977 year, if he also gets his eighth nomination for The Post, that will be a forty year spread between his first and last nomination, longer than the 37 year spread John Huston had between Treasure of the Sierra Madre and Prizzi's Honor, and I think a new record for active span between nominations in a lifetime.

Also interesting, he was 31 when nominated for Close Encounters, which puts him in the ten youngest nominees ever nominated (out of 440ish nominations). if he's 71 when nominated for the Post, that should put him in the top ten oldest nominees ever nominated as well.

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Re: Awards Season 2017

#96 Post by ianthemovie » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:19 pm

On the subject of Oscar records: in the event that Hanks wins Best Actor, it would mark the second time, I believe, that two actors have won Oscars for playing the same person/character (the other instance being Brando/De Niro). If Day-Lewis or Streep win for Best Actor/Actress they would tie with Katharine Hepburn as winning-est actor in Oscar history with four wins. If Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor, he will be the youngest person ever to win in that category.

I kind of like the idea of Streep and Day-Lewis both winning, and in one night breaking or tying the records for most acting Oscars.

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#97 Post by mfunk9786 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:09 pm

New York Film Critics Circle:

- Best Picture: Lady Bird
- Best Director: Sean Baker, The Florida Project
- Best Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
- Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
- Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
- Best Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
- Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Best Cinematography: Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
- Best Animated Film: Coco
- Best Nonfiction Film: Visages, villages
- Best Foreign Language Film: 120 battements par minute
- Best First Film: Get Out

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#98 Post by mfunk9786 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:22 pm

If only that were how the Oscars played out! A lot of new blood. I love it.

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movielocke
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#99 Post by movielocke » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:07 pm

I love Tiffany Haddish just based on Carmichael Show, it'd be amazing if she caught on as a Melissa McCarthy type of nomination and actually got an awards narrative going.

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Fiery Angel
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#100 Post by Fiery Angel » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:24 pm

So it was a lousy year for movies.

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