Awards Season 2017

[aox]

Reading through the responses from the last couple pages, it's interesting that Ribs would choose A Soldier's Story as an example of a forgotten Best Picture film, as intentional or not that's easily the best race-centered film to ever be nominated and deserves a cultural relevancy it is for whatever reason denied presently. That movie has so much to say about the differing black experiences within the larger concept of racial divide and is as relevant as ever. I'd certainly heartily recommend it to the Get Out boosters if they haven't seen it yet

Not to derail this too much, but how does A Soldier's Story compare to his earlier film, In the Heat of the Night? Is it just a director revisiting a familiar trope? After reading the rudimentary synapses, both films sound very similar in their narrative. I've seen the latter but not the former.

[domino harvey]

Night and day, especially since A Soldier's Story is entirely uninterested in the white perspective or non-black audience surrogates

[Ribs]

Not to undermine my point, but I actually hadn't even considered that I chose another film that happens to be about race - I just as easily could have pulled The Dresser out of a hat (incidentally mentioning that I'm hoping Indicator get around to that Columbia title sooner rather than later). But I do like Jewison's film, even if it is a bit forgettable. I also liked the trivia nugget that, until Fences last year, it was the only film Denzel Washington had appeared in to be nominated for Best Picture (in my opinion, a fairly damning indictment with regards to how the Academy tends to treat films that actually are *about* race - they're ignored and the actors get given consideration.)

I also think it's interesting that Gaslight has become this touchstone film (not quite all of a sudden, as "gaslighting" has been a thing, but it's become popularized into the mainstream vernacular as part of recent empowerment movements). Did anybody in 1940 or 1944 at the Oscars think to vote for that due to thinking it would have lasting social legacy 75 years later, or did they just find the mystery engaging?

[Lost Highway]

I also think it's interesting that Gaslight has become this touchstone film (not quite all of a sudden, as "gaslighting" has been a thing, but it's become popularized into the mainstream vernacular as part of recent empowerment movements). Did anybody in 1940 or 1944 at the Oscars think to vote for that due to thinking it would have lasting social legacy 75 years later, or did they just find the mystery engaging?

I doubt it but the film not only had a social legacy, the premise was considered strong enough to not only inspire the British and Hollywood versions of the stage play but also a number of other thrillers like Les Diaboliques and Midnight Lace. Hitchcock's Vertigo could be considered a gender reversal of the premise, only that it's revealed that a man was ultimately pulling the strings behind the scenes.

[Ribs]

The Golden Globes don’t really have much correlation with Oscars at all, but it certainly feels like Lady Bird has become the definitive frontrunner, even if just by a hair.

[mfunk9786]

[Dead or Deader]

Have to love the desperation of Fox rushing out The Post for end of year release, only to be snubbed in many categories. They should've just waited to release the picture this year.


The race is between TBBOEM and LB, with a sharp chance that Shapes of Water or Get Out pull off a upset win. This year seems open-winded compared to any recent award season.

[Ribs]

They should have went wide on Christmas. The movie’s doing insane specialty business (a 50K PTA on 35 screens!) and I do think there’s still a narrative possible when it opens wide and grosses more than almost all the other nominees, but it really could have benefited from commercial success sooner.

[Dead or Deader]

Seeing as there was not much films targeting towards the geriatric crowd outside of All The Money in The World and Darkest Hour, it would've been good counter-programming. Only issue is Fox had The Greatest Showman in the Christmas slot, which is doing solid business with all the biggest films targeting the family circuit. It's weird that Fox is going limited with a zeitgeist-themed film with three marque names to draw in audiences.

[MongooseCmr]

Sam Rockwell saying Billboards is a “movie about compassion” made me want to retch.

[Dead or Deader]

With the early divisive takes, the inevitable backlash could hurt Three Billboards chance of snatching Best Picture.

[movielocke]

The Golden Globes don’t really have much correlation with Oscars at all, but it certainly feels like Lady Bird has become the definitive frontrunner, even if just by a hair.

doubtful, I think Lady bird, three billboards, and shape of water will all be just divisive enough that the post will comfortably win best picture because of the special instant runoff rules for that category.

In any event, lady bird success at the academy will only be predicted by success from the guild awards (both are peer based awards, and so compares like to like) not by awards from critics.

Though to clarify, I don’t think lady bird is divisive in its reception, rather I expect a group that is 75% male to not love it as much as they will generally like the post. And order of being liked is key to winning best picture, and more important, ultimately than being the most favorite to the most people.

The post also benefits from the older age skew of the academy given it is a film contemporaneous to their youth and the political crises that helped shaped their political worldview.

[Big Ben]

I was only really shocked that del Toro won for The Shape of Water. I thought for sure it would be literally anyone else. Anyway his post win Tweet was wild.

[thirtyframesasecond]

I didn't watch the GGs but from catching up on social media, it seems a lot of people were tweeting pics of Oprah schmoozing with Harvey in the past, and Ally Sheedy said something about James Franco.

[rohmerin]

A woman in a black dress is always well dressed. The little noir robe, as Coco Chanel said, but come on, 95% of them seem ravens or magpies. I believe in European supremacy: Diane Kruger and Penelope, ¡qué listas son!

Del Toro has pried well in his sort of Orient - Meditation - Logia - Religion VIP group. Cuarón and the super mega over rated Iñárritu were members in that exclusive hush hush WHITE Mexican group that mix Pre Columbus energies with meditation for being successful and Awarded.

[Luke M]

With the early divisive takes, the inevitable backlash could hurt Three Billboards chance of snatching Best Picture.

Three Billboards shouldn’t even be nominated but I guess that’s a foregone conclusion.

[Ribs]

But the preferential balloting system works such that its being on second place on the ballots of specifically those who vote for the least popular Best Picture nominees that put you over. Right now, those are looking like I, Tonya, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, or the Florida Project, and of those I imagine not many will put the Post as their second choice. Again, its biggest assset right now is a potential huge commercial success (not American Sniper level but possibly of similar scope for a late-breaker) to reassert its place in the race.

[domino harvey]

There is zero indication that the Post will win anything

[mfunk9786]

It's really a shame how much momentum The Florida Project seems to have lost - if Dafoe can't even beat Rockwell, it seems like it's DOA.

[Ribs]

I mean, Aaron Taylor-Johnson won Best Supporting Actor last year, I’d really not get too worried about it.

[domino harvey]

It's really a shame how much momentum The Florida Project seems to have lost - if Dafoe can't even beat Rockwell, it seems like it's DOA.

Every pundit I read said this would be the only award Dafoe would lose. It was expected, but it's hard to be mad at Rockwell winning given his incredible career so far, even if it is for a contentious film

[mfunk9786]

Eh, the character in this case is so repugnant and misguided (and miscast on top of all that, sorry Sam) that I'm absolutely still mad, but I get where you're coming from.

[domino harvey]

It is also perhaps easier for me to take this position having not seen either of these films!

[mfunk9786]

It'll be the twist of the century if you love the McDonagh and hate the Baker but weirder things have happened on this forum

[Roscoe]

In re: THE POST's general lack of awards recognition -- a sign that we're not in a place where movies about Rich White People Saving The Day are going to go down very well.