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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:11 pm 
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Location: East Coast, USA
Dead or Deader wrote:
"Jaba the Hut" or however you spell it.


(PS, not a Star Wars fanboy)

Jabba the Hutt


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:21 pm 
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A positive I think has been ignored is that the Phantom Thread surge does probably mean that it's a serious player and is probably likely to win in the Best Score race, which seemed like it was just going to Desplat without really much fanfare.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:25 pm 
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McCrutchy wrote:
Dead or Deader wrote:
"Jaba the Hut" or however you spell it.


(PS, not a Star Wars fanboy)

Jabba the Hutt

I thought "Juba" was meant to be a homonym with "Jew-ba" which is why I was taken aback, amusing that it was just unfamiliarity with Star Wars that created the confusion!

Ribs wrote:
A positive I think has been ignored is that the Phantom Thread surge does probably mean that it's a serious player and is probably likely to win in the Best Score race, which seemed like it was just going to Desplat without really much fanfare.

It's just a vibe I've been getting over the last few days, but I don't think anyone was too thrilled with the existing frontrunners and that has absolutely left a gap in which Phantom Thread fits. If it isn't Lady Bird or Get Out, I think it's Phantom Thread. Very few people have anything negative to say about it, and it came out so late that it's the freshest in everyone's minds. I continue to refuse to believe that anyone thinks The Shape of Water is the best picture of the year.

I will say - if the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl and Phantom Thread wins Best Picture, I'll probably decide to go out on a high note and permanently retire from consumption of popular culture.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:34 pm 
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Shape of Water seems like it'll be a *very* common #2 choice, even if it's only third or fourth in most #1 votes. If I were to guess in raw vote totals of #1 votes, it's probably something like:

Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Get Out
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour

It's very easy to imagine, of Phantom Thread and Call Me By Your Name fans, that Shape of Water is their 2nd favorite. But if the Post is less popular than I've expected, that could be a boon for Dunkirk as it probably gains the votes of that and Darkest Hour.

My position has become rooting for Three Billboards because I was really concerned a Get Out win would turn the Moonlight moment into this all-time "the Oscars have been ripped apart, never to be put back together" moment, pulled off in an instant. But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room. All indications should be Shape of Water at the top but Fox Searchlight is now in the possibly unprecedented position of having both the Oscar frontrunners!


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:41 pm 
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Three Billboards is dead. Its lack of a Best Director nomination and the increasingly toxic conversation around it has totally killed its chances to take Best Picture. Totally.

This piece in the LA Times makes the compelling case that Phantom Thread is the much more likely "backlash" film, in that it's very different from the topical and diverse choices on the board but still pretty universally beloved by those who've seen it, the number of which should be quite large by the time voting takes place since everyone will want to catch up to Daniel Day-Lewis' final performance before they vote for Best Actor.

Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I'd rank Best Picture in order of likelihood of happening (which I know is not exactly what you were doing, Ribs) at:

01. Lady Bird
02. Phantom Thread
03. Get Out
04. The Shape of Water
05. Dunkirk
06. Three Billboards
07. Darkest Hour
08. The Post
09. Call Me By Your Name

if I were just going on a hunch today.

Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:47 pm 
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Location: Albuquerque, NM
Ribs wrote:
But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room.
Is that what happened to La La Land, or did more people rank Moonlight higher on their ballots?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:48 pm 
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DarkImbecile wrote:
Ribs wrote:
But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room.
Is that what happened to La La Land, or did more people rank Moonlight higher on their ballots?

Again, a film about black people could not win unless there were some sort of race-oriented campaign to punish a superior white film. Haven't you been keeping up with this thread? This is incontrovertible fact.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:54 pm 
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Location: East Coast, USA
I'm just annoyed that there isn't more love for Darkest Hour, since I want Universal to release it on Ultra HD Blu-ray, as I'm future-proofing for upgrading to 4K in the future. It looks like that won't happen, and I may have to settle for standard Blu-ray, and as it will have a Dolby Atmos mix, it looks like 4K was on the cards and shelved, at least for now.

At least Dunkirk and Get Out are already in my collection, and I'll be happily adding The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and somewhat shockingly, Phantom Thread (ironically, also coming via Universal) to my obscenely large UHD Blu-ray collection. So that's only Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird that may not be released on UHD Blu-ray, and obviously, that should change if one of those three wins Best Picture.

Hopefully, next year becomes the first year that all the nominees will be available on UHD BD. I remember hoping the same thing with Blu-ray ten years or so ago.


Last edited by McCrutchy on Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:56 pm 
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Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:25 am
Location: SLC, UT
Sorry to break it to you mfunk, but Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture. (And Trump is going to win re-election. And Kylo Ren is going to win Star Wars 9.)


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:59 pm 
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Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 6:24 pm
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Would I trade these things for an Eagles Super Bowl win? Hmmmm.....


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:08 pm 
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McCrutchy wrote:
I'm just annoyed that there isn't more love for Darkest Hour, since I want Universal to release it on Ultra HD Blu-ray

"Why didn't you say so?!" - Oscar voters

swo17 wrote:
Sorry to break it to you mfunk, but Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture.

I thought so too before the nominations come out, now I think it's a virtual impossibility. Think it's much more likely that the other two things you said happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:10 pm 
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mfunk9786 wrote:

Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.

Maybe I am not understanding you, but there was at least that one SNL skit and I vaguely remember other things.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:12 pm 
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Location: East Coast, USA
mfunk9786 wrote:
McCrutchy wrote:
I'm just annoyed that there isn't more love for Darkest Hour, since I want Universal to release it on Ultra HD Blu-ray

"Why didn't you say so?!" - Oscar voters

*Hopes for three-way tie between CMBYN/DH/LB for Best Picture*


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:14 pm 
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knives wrote:
mfunk9786 wrote:
Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.

Maybe I am not understanding you, but there was at least that one SNL skit and I vaguely remember other things.

I don't remember it verbatim, but wasn't it just about La La Land being such a beloved sensation that Aziz Ansari's character was being grilled for not enjoying it and thinking it dragged in the middle? A la the English Patient episode of Seinfeld?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:18 pm 
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He also said stuff about white people saving jazz. I think Daily Show also hit that hard.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:24 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:35 pm
There was an absolutely massive social media backlash against La La land on the grounds of a white man being a saviour of jazz, it really built in the weeks before the ceremony.

Also, I'd argue that rather than being a potential winner Phantom Thread is along the lines of Wolf of Wall Street. Respected director, misses the guilds, comes back strong for the Oscars, wins nothing.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:27 pm 

Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 11:06 pm
mfunk9786 wrote:
Three Billboards is dead. Its lack of a Best Director nomination and the increasingly toxic conversation around it has totally killed its chances to take Best Picture. Totally.

I actually think not being nominated for Best Director just sealed its win for Best Picture. If McDonagh won Director, something else might have won Best Picture, now winning Best picture will be the only way to "do the film justice" and make up for the Director snub.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:28 pm 
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It was mostly built by people who didn't see the movie, since Gosling does nothing of the kind. So a dude likes some shit, is passionate about it, and wants to own a club celebrating it. What a horrible human being!!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:29 pm 
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felipe wrote:
mfunk9786 wrote:
Three Billboards is dead. Its lack of a Best Director nomination and the increasingly toxic conversation around it has totally killed its chances to take Best Picture. Totally.

I actually think not being nominated for Best Director just sealed its win for Best Picture. If McDonagh won Director, something else might have won Best Picture, now winning Best picture will be the only way to "do the film justice" and make up for the Director snub.

No one gives a shit about McDonagh like they did Affleck


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:30 pm 
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The lack of a BD nomination just means that the directors branch like the movie less than all the other branches that do nominate it. It’s pretty clear that the Actors guild, the most important of them, are well in the tank for this.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:35 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:35 pm
domino harvey wrote:
It was mostly built by people who didn't see the movie, since Gosling does nothing of the kind. So a dude likes some shit, is passionate about it, and wants to own a club celebrating it. What a horrible human being!!!!

Oh I won't try to argue the merits of what they said. But that backlash was definitely a loud and prominent voice between nominations and awards night.
.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:37 pm 
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DarkImbecile wrote:
Ribs wrote:
But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room.
Is that what happened to La La Land, or did more people rank Moonlight higher on their ballots?

More people did not rank Moonlight higher on their ballots (necessarily). More people who liked the least popular BP nominees ranked Moonlight higher on their ballots. It's perfectly possibly that as an average La La Land was ranked higher on the ballots when including the other most voted-for nominees. I'm not disputing its win in any way, but the preferential balloting system does not work the way people assume it does.

My impression of what occurred last year, overall, is that the Golden Globes wins pushed La La Land's backlash to a fever pitch, which highlighted the potentially problematic racial subtext the film has, and a bunch of Academy people were scared off listing it as high as they wanted because they'd been told it'd be racist without actually finding it that way themselves. But now the movie gets to be laughed at forever because many still think it was dumb and racist and it lost so embarrassingly. And I imagine those same people will not be so quick to change their vote for Three Billboards based on these (far more deserved) thinkpieces.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:41 pm 

Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 11:06 pm
rawlinson wrote:
domino harvey wrote:
It was mostly built by people who didn't see the movie, since Gosling does nothing of the kind. So a dude likes some shit, is passionate about it, and wants to own a club celebrating it. What a horrible human being!!!!

Oh I won't try to argue the merits of what they said. But that backlash was definitely a loud and prominent voice between nominations and awards night.
.

The backlash was huge! For a week it seemed like the only thing people were talking about the film. Gosling even joked about it on his SNL monologue, didn't he?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:43 pm 
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Area Man Thinks Movie He Saw Should Have Been Nominated

Quote:
“That secret agent movie I saw should definitely have been nominated,” Kent said indignantly of Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the single film he watched in a theater last year, which reportedly featured numerous “cool action scenes” and “really good acting.” “It had the best script. It totally kicked ass. Seriously, what is the Academy thinking?”


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2017
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:50 pm 
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Location: Great Falls, Montana
mfunk9786 wrote:
Area Man Thinks Movie He Saw Should Have Been Nominated

Quote:
“That secret agent movie I saw should definitely have been nominated,” Kent said indignantly of Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the single film he watched in a theater last year, which reportedly featured numerous “cool action scenes” and “really good acting.” “It had the best script. It totally kicked ass. Seriously, what is the Academy thinking?”

It's nice to see President Trump chiming in on the awards.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
He's only seen two films this year and they're The Greatest Showman and Darkest Hour.


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