Awards Season 2017

Discuss films of the 21st century including current cinema, current filmmakers, and film festivals.
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McCrutchy
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:57 am
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#551 Post by McCrutchy » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:56 pm

Big Ben wrote:It's nice to see President Trump chiming in on the awards.
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He's only seen two films this year and they're The Greatest Showman and Darkest Hour.
Surely he's also seen War for the Planet of the Apes, too?

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Big Ben
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#552 Post by Big Ben » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:14 am

He'll certainly have a presence at the Oscars (Not physically of course.) and I think we can all agree to that regardless of our own political convictions. I see mention of Three Billboards not winning on the last page but I'm not entirely convinced of that given well, the past voting of the Academy. I wouldn't be shocked to see a retread of years past with the Best Picture Oscar past despite this wave of change moving forward. Granted I haven't seen Three Billboards yet but given it's reception here and the outright vitriol it's created from people I have associations with outside the forum. It's nigh impossible to be connected in this day and age (Within your own bubble of course) and not have people's opinions on films get in. I went into The Last Jedi expecting a dumpster fire.

I generally don't know what's going to win and that is frustrating to me mostly because it's been pretty easy for me to make bets and win money come Oscar night.
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I'm joking.

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movielocke
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:44 am

Awards Season 2017

#553 Post by movielocke » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:55 pm

BP winner is a combination of most liked + least disliked by supporters of the other seven films.

You can probably use nomination count as a proxy for most liked, So shape of water, three billboards, phantom thread, Lady bird and Dunkirk. These are probably the least likely to be eliminated first. Four of those did extremely well in the acting categories, which is the largest branch and popularity there is important, probably more so than Dunkirk getting sound nominations.

Of the other five, get out has an obviously passionate base and is probably safe from being first eliminated , while the post, call me, and darkest hour seem to be in danger of being first eliminated.

Given it only has two nominations it seems reasonable to assume that the post will be first eliminated. I imagine many of its voters will go to darkest hour, phantom thread and lady bird, as similar period pieces. That probably then pushes call me by your name to be eliminated next, well what film do they like second best? Lady bird, shape of water, phantom thread would be my guess.

Since get out probably hasn’t performed as well as a second choice, but darkest hour has, get out is probably the third eliminated, and a lot of te votes probably go to three billboards and Dunkirk.

The spells trouble for darkest hour and it’s fourth gone and its votes go mostly to Dunkirk and phantom thread.

Now it’s probably chaos and close at the bottom of the ballot as all five films are probably in fairly strong positions. Any of the five eliminated here probably thoroughly upends the race by redistributing votes each in different ways that would effect the next nomination.

So I don’t think you can make a strong prediction.

For instance at this point Dunkirk might be the most divisive for non Dunkirk voters, but that doesn’t matter if it still has a few dozen more votes than an overall less divisive phantom thread.

Phantom thread being eliminated first might boost lady bird and shape of water enough to avoid elimination and force a Dunkirk or three billboards elimination.

On the other hand, Dunkirk being eliminated first might boost three billboards and shape of water and force a lady bird or phantom thread elimination.

Either shape of water or lady bird or phantom thread getting eliminated in third position (presuming three billboards is in first or second in most all scenarios) probably boost the other remaining film above three billboards.

It’s interesting being a year without a strong duo or trio of films, it makes it very hard to predict.

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Ribs
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#554 Post by Ribs » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:04 pm

But it probably won't go all the way up the ballot - whatever is #1 would probably get to the 50% threshold after only four or five drops. I think it's pretty reasonable that Darkest Hour's support goes to Dunkirk, as does the Post's, and that they both have the lowest #1 listings; but it's hard for me to imagine who else would be inclined to vote so highly for Dunkirk (acknowledging that most people aren't robots who automatically like exclusively movies of certain styles above all others without exception). I would imagine if it does get up to the point where the 5th or 4th nominee is dropped (which would probably be Get Out), it in my opinion would probably be Lady Bird's race to lose. But it'll probably not get that far.

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movielocke
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#555 Post by movielocke » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:32 pm

I'm not so sure, it takes a long while to accumulate 4000-4500 votes to reach 50%+1, I imagine shape of water is starting off with about 2000, and three billboards about 1500, it's going to take the third place or fourth place film being eliminated to push one of them over the edge.

given the 5% rule, we know that all of the films have at least ~= 425 #1 votes to begin with, otherwise they can't qualify for the category. but with nine nominees, that only accounts for about 4000 votes. probably 1000 wasted on other non-nominated films, and the remaining 4000 being distributed amongst the top vote getters.

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domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#556 Post by domino harvey » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:37 pm


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Ribs
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#557 Post by Ribs » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:39 pm

possibly due to the legitimate chance he’d be sucker punched by Frances McDormand

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#558 Post by mfunk9786 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:39 pm

domino harvey wrote:In completely unsurprising news, Casey Affleck dropped out of presenting Best Actress at the Oscars
This is as good a time as any to point out how fucking insanely good of a Casey Affleck impression Alex Moffat on SNL does. He's an incredibly niche person to mimic but it's wild how entertaining it is.

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swo17
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#559 Post by swo17 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:47 pm

Too bad there's no way for people to make up for their mistakes and be forgiven.

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knives
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:49 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#560 Post by knives » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:13 pm

Wouldn't that require an apology first though, or at least a simple acknowledgement?

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#561 Post by mfunk9786 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:17 pm

The best way to make up for your mistakes is to accuse the person who you mistreated of trying to extort you and threatening to countersue

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Big Ben
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#562 Post by Big Ben » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:22 pm

Aside from Dan Harmon has anyone given an apology and been forgiven in such a manner that hasn't significantly damaged their careers? Casey Affleck presenting in this environment would have been a PR disaster.

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swo17
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#563 Post by swo17 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:35 pm

knives wrote:Wouldn't that require an apology first though, or at least a simple acknowledgement?
Still a month 'til the ceremony

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#564 Post by mfunk9786 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:42 pm

Big Ben wrote:Aside from Dan Harmon has anyone given an apology and been forgiven in such a manner that hasn't significantly damaged their careers? Casey Affleck presenting in this environment would have been a PR disaster.
Yeah, Affleck is still working steadily and is likely just praying that this goes away, even though if he sincerely apologized most people would likely be forgiving. See also: C.K., Louis, who is likely well on his way to eventual redemption since he actually apologized and acknowledged he did something wrong

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thirtyframesasecond
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#565 Post by thirtyframesasecond » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:19 am

domino harvey wrote:In completely unsurprising news, Casey Affleck dropped out of presenting Best Actress at the Oscars
I still remember the absolute contempt Brie Larson showed him whilst doing the award duties. It was asking to be protested, the organisers must be relieved.

davoarid
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#566 Post by davoarid » Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:51 pm

domino harvey wrote:Interesting fact: had I, Tonya been nominated, every decade from the 40s through present day would have been represented by the Best Picture nominees
I kinda love this. Is that counting The Post as both 60s and 70s, or am I missing one?

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Shrew
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#567 Post by Shrew » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:31 pm

Shape of Water is in the 60s (in the last days of the reign of a fair prince).

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All the Best People
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#568 Post by All the Best People » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:30 pm

Just saw Mudbound on the big screen and this is a movie that should be getting a lot more attention than it is. Epic and intimate, well-acted across the board, and it looked great. I'm unfamiliar with the novel but it felt impeccable in its adaptation.

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aox
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#569 Post by aox » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:27 pm

I just saw Mother!. Still processing it (I think I really loved it despite it being somewhat silly and uncomfortable at times) and might bump the other thread. But relevant to the Awards thread, I can completely understand it not getting nominated for anything except Lawrence's performance. I like Ronan, Streep, and McDormand immensely, but I thought Lawrence trumped them all this year. (Haven't seen the other two performances).

EDIT: has anyone won a Best Performance Oscar (not supporting) for a movie that wasn't nominated for any other category?

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Brian C
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#570 Post by Brian C » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:33 pm

I’d have guessed Denzel for TRAINING DAY but looking it up, it turns out that Ethan Hawke inexplicably got a nomination for that movie also.

I’m sure it’s happened at least a few times though.

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aox
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#571 Post by aox » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:41 pm

Brian C wrote:I’d have guessed Denzel for TRAINING DAY but looking it up, it turns out that Ethan Hawke inexplicably got a nomination for that movie also.

I’m sure it’s happened at least a few times though.
Great guess. But yeah

I came up with:

Still Alice \:D/

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Kirkinson
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#572 Post by Kirkinson » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:07 pm

I only went back a few decades but came up with Forest Whitaker for Last King of Scotland, Jessica Lange for Blue Sky, Kathy Bates for Misery, and Jodie Foster for The Accused. Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady *almost* qualifies with just a Best Makeup nom.

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DarkImbecile
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#573 Post by DarkImbecile » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:28 pm

All the Best People wrote:Just saw Mudbound on the big screen and this is a movie that should be getting a lot more attention than it is. Epic and intimate, well-acted across the board, and it looked great. I'm unfamiliar with the novel but it felt impeccable in its adaptation.
I liked much of Mudbound a fair amount, and would have enjoyed the opportunity to see it in theaters. I can’t help but think that Netflix’s dogmatic opposition to wide theatrical releases kept it from being a more prominent awards player, as a) much of its appeal comes from Morrison’s cinematography, and b) unlike streaming television series, streaming-only films just haven’t reached the point where they enter the popular/critical film conversation to the same extent as theatrical releases. I’d have been much happier with Mudbound as the ninth best picture nominee than Darkest Hour or The Post, and that would have been much more likely if Dee Rees’ film had been given the kind of release Amazon gave Manchester by the Sea, for example.

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domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#574 Post by domino harvey » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:34 am

The author of this Variety fluff piece thinks All the Money in the World is nominated for Best Picture

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DarkImbecile
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#575 Post by DarkImbecile » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:56 pm

This is the earliest in the year I've actually seen all the Oscar nominees in all the major categories, so I'm going to daringly go out on a limb and make my predictions and preferences list before having the opportunity to see the opinions of a handful of opinionated Academy members in the Hollywood Reporter:

Best Picture:
Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Pick (Nominees): Call Me By Your Name (Actually a really good year for the alignment of BP nominees with my favorites, so I wouldn't be saddened by a win for The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, or even Get Out, which I didn't love the way seemingly everyone on the planet did, but would still be a fun winner. Three Billboards or Darkest Hour, on the other hand, would be the most depressing wins since The King's Speech/The Artist double whammy)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): A Ghost Story (This was my favorite for seven months until I saw Call Me By Your Name, and still deserves way more attention than it received, though I know it did well in end-of-year critics' lists)

Best Director:
Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
My Pick (Nominees): Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Errol Morris, Wormwood (The advancements the already great Morris makes in his interview technique, editing, and recreations here are worth recognition; it's a tragedy this was deemed ineligible as a documentary feature, stopping Morris from adding to his one[?!@#%] Oscar nomination)

Best Actress:
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Pick (Nominees): Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (McDormand does fine work in a deeply flawed film, but the fine line Ronan walks in Lady Bird requires more discipline and range)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Diane Kruger, In the Fade (If this had been a wide-release English language film, I have no doubt she'd be among the nominees if not the frontrunner; I similarly would have loved to see Maryana Spivak get more consideration for her work in Loveless)

Best Actor:
Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (Sigh)
My Pick (Nominees): Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (A truly amazing performance requiring so much emotion, physicality, and subtlety, this one will get passed over because everyone assumes - rightly, I hope - that he'll be a regular in this category)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Christian Bale, Hostiles (I really wish this had platformed earlier, because I think it might have scored Bale a much-deserved nomination for his work here; I can see the clip for the ceremony being an emotional bedside farewell about halfway through the film that was fantastically done by both actors)

Best Supporting Actress:
Prediction: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
My Pick (Nominees): Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (No likely outcome is going to frustrate me more than Metcalf losing this Oscar to a fine but much less rich and nuanced performance by Janney)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Rooney Mara, A Ghost Story (Not just for the pie scene, but also for the pie scene)

Best Supporting Actor:
Prediction: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (I'm hoping that some combination of the desire to reward the film in some way, a career recognition sentiment, and the splitting of Three Billboards votes between Harrelson and Rockwell give Dafoe the edge)
My Pick (Nominees): Dafoe (Though I'd also be happy to see Harrelson win, both for giving the best performance in the film and for increasingly strong accumulation of excellent work over the last decade-plus)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (If I felt more certain about how to categorize him, I might have with Peter Sarsgaard for Wormwood)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Prediction: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
My Pick (Nominees): Ivory
My Pick (Non-Nominees): James Gray, The Lost City of Z (Would have much rather seen Gray and his film get a sole nomination here - and the deserved designation of "Academy Award nominee" - than other lone nominees Logan or Molly's Game)

Best Original Screenplay:
Prediction: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (Though this may be where voters try to reward Peele for Get Out)
My Pick (Nominees): Gerwig
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Julia Ducournou, Raw (Inventive, funny, shocking, and unpredictable to the final scene)

Best Cinematography:
Prediction: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
My Pick (Nominees): Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Mikhail Krichman, Loveless (With Roger Deakins a close second for Blade Runner 2049)

Best Editing:
Prediction: Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
My Pick (Nominees): Lee Smith, Dunkirk (I hope voters look past the usual editing/picture overlap and recognize that editing is the key element that elevates Dunkirk over otherwise similar war films)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Steven Hathaway, Wormwood (Weaving together the seemingly tens of cameras Morris used for each interview, as well as the recreations and contemporaneous footage, deserves recognition)

Best Original Score:
Prediction: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
My Pick (Nominees): Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (This is maybe the most unpopular opinion I've ever expressed on this board, but while Greenwood's score is lovely and beautifully interwoven into its film, it never felt as vital and complementary to the experience of watching it in the way Zimmer's did for Dunkirk)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Daniel Hart, A Ghost Story (Especially if I can lump in "I Get Overwhelmed", the Dark Rooms song used so well in a key scene and which I would have picked in the next category if it wasn't for Sufjan Stevens)

Best Original Song:
Prediction: Sufjan Stevens, "Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name ("Remember Me" from Coco would also not be a surprise)
My Pick (Nominees): "Mystery of Love"
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Sufjan Stevens, "Visions of Gideon", Call Me By Your Name (Best use I've seen of an original song in recent memory)

Visual Effects:
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049 (I feel like many of these technical awards of late have gone to "the best film we know won't win/wasn't nominated for best picture" a la Mad Max: Fury Road)
My Pick (Nominees): Blade Runner 2049
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Thor: Ragnarok (Did a good job of mixing the usual spectacle with the dirty, haphazard look of the junk planet)

Sound Categories:
Prediction: Dunkirk
My Pick (Nominees): Blade Runner 2049/Dunkirk (Like most non-industry people, I forget every what the precise differences between these two categories are, so let me just say I want Dunkirk to win one of them for the sound of that dive bomber and Blade Runner 2049 to win the other for overall sound design... maybe Mixing and Editing, respectively?)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): mother! (I think the sound in this film carried a sneaky amount of the weight of the claustrophobic paranoia that is either its key selling point or worst feature, depending on your perspective)

Best Foreign Language Film:
Prediction: Sebastian Lelio, A Fantastic Woman, Chile (This is the only category listed in which I haven't seen every nominee, and Lelio's film is one of the three I'm missing, but it's hard to imagine the Academy passing up a chance to award and give a stage to a film about a trans woman, and I hear it's a great film)
My Pick (Nominees): Andrei Zvyagintsev, Loveless, Russia (Hard to see anything beating this for me, but in addition to the Lelio I'm very excited for Ziad Doueiri's The Insult)
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Tie: Joachim Trier, Thelma, Norway and Julia Ducournou, Raw, France (Don't make me choose; with Fatih Akin's In the Fade also in close contention)

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