Awards Season 2017

Discuss films of the 21st century including current cinema, current filmmakers, and film festivals.
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hearthesilence
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 4:22 am
Location: NYC

Re: Awards Season 2017

#676 Post by hearthesilence » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:10 pm

domino harvey wrote:Predix using my standard formula: What would be the least surprising winner?

Best Pic: the Shape of Water
Best Director: Del Toro
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Get Out
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
I pretty much agree with this. I'd still give Get Out an edge over Billboards (even though some say Billboards would've won the WGA award had it been eligible).

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domino harvey
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#677 Post by domino harvey » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:11 pm

aox wrote:Do you guys know which foreign film is favored or predicted to win that category this year?

I only managed to catch The Square this year out of the nominees.
The Insult seems likely

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Ribs
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#678 Post by Ribs » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:12 pm

It actually seems pretty open in the scheme of things. It probably won't be On Body and Soul, but I can pretty easily imagine any of the others walking away with it (A Fantastic Woman is favored, though)

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Big Ben
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:54 pm
Location: Great Falls, Montana

Re: Awards Season 2017

#679 Post by Big Ben » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:18 pm

I would wager A Fantastic Woman has a shot too. The star of the film will be the first trans individual to present an Oscar tomorrow too.

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mistakaninja
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:15 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#680 Post by mistakaninja » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:36 pm

I suspect A Fantastic Woman has zeitgeist on its side.

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All the Best People
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:08 pm
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#681 Post by All the Best People » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:25 pm

Last night I went to see the Oscar-nominated live action short films.

"Dekalb Elementary" was my favorite, but I don't suspect it will win. It's apparently inspired by some true story, and involves a shooter trying to force a confrontation with police, and the elementary school staffer who works to talk him down. The lead actress, someone named Tarrah Riggs, was superb.

"The Silent Child" is about a little deaf girl and a special instructor who conflicts with the parents about how to work with the girl. It all ends up being a PSA for educating deaf children, and a bit manipulative as a result -- the little girl is as cute a moppet as you can imagine -- but it was well-done. The actress playing the teacher is named Rachel Shenton, and she also wrote it, and she is also totally NextGen Hayley Atwell, if you're into that sort of thing.

"My Nephew Emmett" is about the abduction and murder of Emmet Till. Even if you don't realize it's Emmett Till at the beginning, it's still very predictable (and sloooooooow) and doesn't shine any light on these sorts of horrors.

"The Eleven O'Clock" is a comedic Australian short about a psychiatrist and a new patient. If I tell you any more about the premise, you will figure out the ending immediately, and they don't even do anything to hide it early on, basically treating the audience as morons. There was some cleverness but the fact that I was fifteen minutes ahead of it from the very start made it tedious.

"Watu Wate: All of Us" is set in Africa and tells a true story of courage in a land of Christian-Muslim conflict. They basically could have put an image of one of those COEXIST bumper stickers on the screen for twenty minutes and done the same thing, so I suspect it is the frontrunner to win, though the Emmett Till one could as well.

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knives
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:49 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#682 Post by knives » Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:59 pm

A Fantastic Woman is definitely going to win. Fortunately a lot of the short films are available online right now for those who can't/ don't want to go to the theater. I particularly recommend Edith and Eddie from the docs and Negative Space for the animated films (avoid Kobe Bryant's masturbation though).

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diamonds
Joined: Sun Apr 24, 2016 2:35 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#683 Post by diamonds » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:25 pm

I'd like to second Negative Space from the animated shorts. It's a wonderful little film, poignant and funny. Though not nominated, Lost Property Office is one to see as well. The spirit of Jacques Tati runs through it. Really a shame it isn't in the running, but it's nice to see it being shown alongside the others in theaters.

For those that saw Garden Party,
SpoilerShow
Was the man in the pool Trump?
Some of the people I saw it with seemed to think so, but I didn't immediately make that connection. I just thought it was a general representation of that kind of figure.

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knives
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:49 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#684 Post by knives » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:35 pm

Yeah, I took it as a generic member of the bourgeoisie.

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movielocke
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:44 am

Re: Awards Season 2017

#685 Post by movielocke » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:41 am

Having finally seen most of the nominees (Mudbound, and Blade Runner are the only films with more than 2 nominations I haven't seen), my predictions/thoughts:

I don't think Three Billboards can win, even though it will probably pick up acting prizes. I think it's too dark, mean and hateful to win, and like the Revenant will suffer for it. Could it win a plurality? sure, but I think on a preferential ballot? I think it's getting screwed hard in the early rounds and winds up being eliminated fifth or sixth.

To me that means that Shape of Water is probably the obvious winner, but Get Out, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, or Phantom Thread could all pull off a Moonlight/12 Years a Slave win by as those films did, stealing a win from the preferential ballot and bypassing the plurality winner.

that makes it a fairly exciting race, and realistically, I think only Dunkirk and Phantom Thread have an actual shot at pulling off that upset, given Phantom Thread over performed on nominations, I kind of suspect perhaps that was a "peaked early" scenario, rather than "enormous and growing momentum" scenario.

So while I'm predicting Shape of Water to win, I do want to make a side bet that Dunkirk will upset win best picture as well.

Director: Guillermo del Toro
Actor: Oldman
Actress: McDormand (Robbie is who I'm rooting here for though, but we all know Tonya don't do well with judging panels)
S. Actor: Rockwell
S. Actress: Janney
Adapted - CMBYN
Original - Get Out
Animated - Coco
Cinematography - Dunkirk
Costume Design - Phantom Thread
Editing - Dunkirk (I would also put a side bet here for a Baby Driver upset though)
Makeup - Darkest Hour
Music - Shape of Water
Song - Greatest Showman
Production Design - Beauty and the Beast
Sound effects - Dunkirk
Sound Mixing - Dunkirk
VFX - Star Wars (I know everyone is predicting Apes, but this feels like an upset category to me, and voters may just wind up going for something they've seen more recently).

rawlinson
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:35 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#686 Post by rawlinson » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:14 am

You have to think if Dunkirk wins the backlash would be phenomenal, an all white all male film winning this year seems unthinkable. Regardless of the merits of the film it's going to seem like the Academy burying its head in the sand. I think if Dunkirk was going to break through for the win it needed the Bafta first.

felipe
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 11:06 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#687 Post by felipe » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:03 am

Ribs wrote:No, they're having all the categories be presented by several past winners, including Emma Stone. They last did this in 2010 to get around Heath Ledger's abscence.
But doesn't that make them look like they're trying to get people not to notice Affleck isn't there? As if they don't want to drag this narrative any further?

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Luke M
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2007 9:21 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#688 Post by Luke M » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:54 pm

rawlinson wrote:You have to think if Dunkirk wins the backlash would be phenomenal, an all white all male film winning this year seems unthinkable. Regardless of the merits of the film it's going to seem like the Academy burying its head in the sand. I think if Dunkirk was going to break through for the win it needed the Bafta first.
I think Dunkirk’s technical achievements are universally well respected. There was a conversation on Twitter about how Dunkirk is too good and that has actually hurt its chances. I’m not sure The Shape of Water has enough stans that’ll rage enough should Dunkirk win. It’s not like Get Out or Lady Bird are the favorites.

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Ribs
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#689 Post by Ribs » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:49 pm

Literally no matter what wins there is a backlash that damages the movie's overall standing. Even Moonlight's had a bit of that. It's part of why I wish more people who didn't like Three Billboards would want it to win - it will, without question, be known for years as the worst, most tone-deaf winner since Crash. But it saves us having the have Shape of Water or something have a stronger show of negativity. (I don't think I'd be able to handle the 'it's good but not exceptional' tide that would wash over in the wake of a Lady Bird victory, tbh)

I don't know quite why this happened or if it's a convergence of factors (Moonlight winning, it winning in that manner, the wide-open race, the new Academy, Trump, the MeToo movement, and the Olympics adding an extra week to the process) but Mark Harris said yesterday on Twitter that this year for some reason feels like awards season has been stretched to an absolute breaking point to the point that there's just nothing more to be gleaned from these films in conversation with one another.

MongooseCmr
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:50 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#690 Post by MongooseCmr » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:02 pm

It really does feel never ending. It may be because almost all the nominees were for once among the most acclaimed films of the year, and we’re getting it from both ends in industry press and real film writing. And there’s just nothing else in theaters right now. My area has had Lady Bird and Three Billboards playing in some capacity since November, the rest all refuse to leave too. We’ve also beein talking about Get Out and Dunkirk for 12 and 8 months respectively.

rawlinson
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:35 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#691 Post by rawlinson » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:34 pm

Luke M wrote:
rawlinson wrote:You have to think if Dunkirk wins the backlash would be phenomenal, an all white all male film winning this year seems unthinkable. Regardless of the merits of the film it's going to seem like the Academy burying its head in the sand. I think if Dunkirk was going to break through for the win it needed the Bafta first.
I think Dunkirk’s technical achievements are universally well respected. There was a conversation on Twitter about how Dunkirk is too good and that has actually hurt its chances. I’m not sure The Shape of Water has enough stans that’ll rage enough should Dunkirk win. It’s not like Get Out or Lady Bird are the favorites.
Get Out is being pushed as the potential upset and a screenplay/picture winner. I think Dunkirk has escaped fire this year because it quickly got to the point it wasn't the favourite, but if it was it would have been torn to shreds by now. If it wins I think it'll be roughly five seconds before there's the first comment along the lines of - Academy looking to the past where they could just vote for films by white men.

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Luke M
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2007 9:21 pm

Re: Awards Season 2017

#692 Post by Luke M » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:06 pm

MongooseCmr wrote:It really does feel never ending. It may be because almost all the nominees were for once among the most acclaimed films of the year, and we’re getting it from both ends in industry press and real film writing. And there’s just nothing else in theaters right now. My area has had Lady Bird and Three Billboards playing in some capacity since November, the rest all refuse to leave too. We’ve also beein talking about Get Out and Dunkirk for 12 and 8 months respectively.
The biggest and what will end up being the most talked about movie of the year is playing in theaters now.

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Brian C
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 11:58 am
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Awards Season 2017

#693 Post by Brian C » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:08 pm

I think I have to disagree with your assessment of FIFTY SHADES FREED - it doesn’t seem like it’ll make any bigger long-term impact than the first two.

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domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#694 Post by domino harvey » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:23 pm

Really boring people who just discovered Literotica feel that they've never seen themselves represented on-screen like this before though

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Brian C
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 11:58 am
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Awards Season 2017

#695 Post by Brian C » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:28 pm

You know what, you’re right. My privilege blinds me to so many marginalized groups!!!

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Big Ben
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:54 pm
Location: Great Falls, Montana

Re: Awards Season 2017

#696 Post by Big Ben » Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:36 pm

You all laugh at your situation but we've had Hostiles playing here for over six weeks alongside Darkest Hour. It cannot possibly get worse than that.

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aox
Joined: Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:02 pm
Location: nYc

Re: Awards Season 2017

#697 Post by aox » Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:50 pm

Big Ben wrote:You all laugh at your situation but we've had Hostiles playing here for over six weeks alongside Darkest Hour. It cannot possibly get worse than that.
Sending thoughts and prayers your way

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lacritfan
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2007 6:39 pm
Location: Los Angeles

Re: Awards Season 2017

#698 Post by lacritfan » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:31 pm

It's "shaping" up to be a boring Three Billboards of Water so all I can hope is the Academy doesn't want that either so upsets please.

Picture - Get Out
Actor - Gary Oldman
Actress - Sally Hawkins
Sup Actor - Sam Rockwell
Sup Actress - Lesley Manville
Director - PTA
Original - Lady Bird
Adapted - CMBYN
Animated - Coco
Foreign - Fantastic Woman
Documentary - Faces Places
Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049
Editing - Dunkirk
Prod Design - Shape of Water
Score - Jonny Greenwood
Costume - Phantom Thread
Sound Edit - Dunkirk
Sound Mix - Dunkirk
Song - Remember Me
Makeup - Darkest Hour
Visual - Star Wars
Doc Short - Heaven...405
Anim Short - Dear Basketball
Live Short - DeKalb Elementary

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TMDaines
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:01 pm
Location: Stretford, Manchester

Re: Awards Season 2017

#699 Post by TMDaines » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:39 pm

Just to try and brighten up this section of the forum, because it often becomes toxic as fuck at this time of year with too many eager to show off every negative opinion they’ve got about anything remotely successful: in my opinion at least, this has been the best set of award films in quite some time. I’ve still got to see Phantom Thread, The Post, I, Tonya and Mudbound too, but considering I felt out of the loop coming in 2018, I’ve had an incredble amount of great evenings watching recently.

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mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017

#700 Post by mfunk9786 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:55 pm

I don't trust anyone who knows the word "literotica," let alone capitalizes it

If that Bullock/Kidman interaction is any indication, I haven't missed anything. Hello everyone!

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