The Future of Home Video

[dwk]

I am not sure the boutiques are enough to keep the pressing plants open if/when the studios finally throw in the towel.

[Matt]

We know anecdotally that most boutique labels are doing quite well, probably because they are not concerned with growth as the only indicator of success. They have a core market they cater to, typically sell direct to consumers, and don't overproduce.

As far as pressing plants go, maybe they won't be gargantuan operations, but they'll still exist. After all, audiocassette duplication still exists and that's not exactly a growth market. You can still buy Polaroid instant cameras and film. Kodak still makes Super 8 film.

[jheez]

One could be tempted to believe the current pressing plants are doing fine and running near max capacity. There have been many releases delayed due to production capacity issues in the recent past.

[tenia]

As far as pressing plants go, maybe they won't be gargantuan operations, but they'll still exist. After all, audiocassette duplication still exists and that's not exactly a growth market. You can still buy Polaroid instant cameras and film. Kodak still makes Super 8 film.

What we don't know if how much discs need to sell to keep fix costs of pressing plants sustained. Usually, there is a minimum volule under which it simply isn't sustainable to keep a manufacturing plant open. Maybe the current video discs plants also have other activities and can smooth those out on different products, but otherwise, I'd tend to suppose there is a threshold below which those plants won't be able to remain open.

[MichaelB]

These days, "doing well" basically means "reliably breaking even, with enough on top to pay freelance contributors and fund future projects" - but current freelance feels are massively based on contributor goodwill.

But you can't tune out the majors from this discussion because – and I know I've said this multiple times already, but this issue isn't going to go away – once their massive bulk orders properly dry up, pressing plants will take a long, hard look at whether or not it's viable to stay in business at all. And, as Walter Kurtz correctly says, "tiny boutiques are are just tiny specks of lint on the industry coat jacket".

Even if the pressing plants don't close across the board, they look certain to sharply reduce in number, which will almost certainly mean a marked rise in per-unit manufacturing costs, with inescapable knock-on effects on RRP, and therefore a likely reduction in sales, and so the vicious cycle continues.

(I know I'm pessimistic, but I have to be! I'd be foolish in the extreme not to have worked out contingency plans, and right now they're based on my physical media career ending circa 2030. If I'm wrong, that's obviously great.)

[FrauBlucher]

I remember when Nick Redman, as he started Twilight Time in 2011/2012 (don’t remember exact year) saying then that physical media had 5 to 7 years left. We are way past that time. Sure the numbers are down but have not become unsustainable. I still think there is life in the formats, especially with the format improving and studios devouring libraries and then being selective with their outputs via streaming. But I guess time will tell as no one has a crystal ball.

Kurtz, I didn’t read Peacock’s questioning as anything other than questioning the stats and nothing else

MichaelB, it’s always smart to have an alternate plan. It be foolish not to

[MichaelB]

If I remember rightly, Nick specifically cited 2020 as the cut-off date! Which was obviously much too pessimistic.

By definition the numbers are currently sustainable – the problem being that it doesn't take much of a shift for them to suddenly become unsustainable.

I'll never forget spending several months in the second half of 1993 having regular Monday morning directors' meetings at the old Everyman Cinema (i.e. its single-venue repertory incarnation, not the upmarket chain that it later became), and at the top of the agenda every single time was the question "are we trading insolvently?" Because if the answer was ever unambiguously "yes", we'd have been legally obliged to close down - the alternative presumably being that the company would lose its limited liability status and we'd be personally on the hook for debts, but obviously there was never any question of reaching that stage.

Which, as far as I can make out, is what did for Network, and explains why they had to shut down so suddenly and so quickly.

But I can't stress enough that I'm not aware of any current boutique label who's potentially in that position, and indeed the smaller boutiques stay in business by watching their costs like the proverbial hawk.

(It's no coincidence that Second Run's head honcho had an extensive professional background in entertainment-industry accounting, and I'd almost certainly be hopeless at actually running a label of my own; even though I have a first-class Business Studies degree, I know where my strengths lie and where they very much don't!)

[tenia]

Even if the pressing plants don't close across the board, they look certain to sharply reduce in number, which will almost certainly mean a marked rise in per-unit manufacturing costs, with inescapable knock-on effects on RRP, and therefore a likely reduction in sales, and so the vicious cycle continues.

And it will create supply chain tensions, as the capacity will be reduced while only smaller runs (as in : studios tend to do bigger batch sizes, in opposite to boutique labels) will remain. It will free up capacity if studios don't get anything to press anymore, but if one assume the pressing plants will adjust capacity accordingly, it'll be back to square one, except with less competition, and less alternatives if one of the plant has a problem whatsoever and labels need to go elsewhere.

[dwk]

Arrow has laid off some of their staff

[Finch]

Not to wade too much into politics but the tariffs are going to bite importers on both sides of the Atlantic. Could we be looking at an extra $20 for every single title? I'm worried about the knock on effects on indie stores like Orbit, Atomic and Diabolik, and primarily the boutique labels themselves. Just when some studios like Lionsgate were dipping their toes back into the physical media market, this happens. Perhaps this will blow over fast when the Orange Mad King sees the markets in freefall.

[Captain Paranoia]

I'm trying not to discuss politics on this site (and I've been trying to keep my mind off politics in general, which has been difficult), but I'm seriously hoping that physical media are exempt from this sort of stuff, and that the tariffs will blow over fast when the markets crash.

[Finch]

I'm definitely glad that I upgraded to a 4K TV and player a month ago and didn't wait. I'd probably pay an extra $100-200 for each of those in late spring/early summer.

[therewillbeblus]

Yeah, I think we'll see an increase. Just look at the prices of those deluxe foreign mediabook imports etc. all over Orbit et al. - that's about what I expect it to look like

[Jean-Luc Garbo]

The Arrow Leone pre-orders are listed as "Unavailable" now on Orbit

EDIT: Over on IG live Orbit said UK imports are going to be 5%-10% extra due to tariffs.

[Drucker]

The Arrow Leone pre-orders are listed as "Unavailable" now on Orbit

EDIT: Over on IG live Orbit said UK imports are going to be 5%-10% extra due to tariffs.

What about other pre-orders?

[therewillbeblus]

I was just about to say I'm glad I just placed preorders for summer titles yesterday (purely incidental), but if these companies are going to lose money on preorders I wouldn't be surprised to see them get canceled

[Drucker]

Hypothetically speaking where would the Criterionforum J6 take place?

[dwk]

I was just about to say I'm glad I just placed preorders for summer titles yesterday (purely incidental), but if these companies are going to lose money on preorders I wouldn't be surprised to see them get canceled

The fees they have when cancelling orders and refunding money likely would prevent them from doing that. And I think the storea cancelling orders and only giving store credit would really piss off their customers

[TechnicolorAcid]

Hypothetically speaking where would the Criterionforum J6 take place?

Hypothetically, besides the White House, the most optimal place would be The Estates at Trump National in LA roughly around May 10th.

[domino harvey]

10% extra is a lot better than I'd have expected from some of the numbers I've been hearing. I'll continue to support OrbitDVD at these rates

EDIT: Though it looks like he deleted all of the preorders from being orderable?

[swo17]

If you stop buying American products, that should leave you with more than enough money to cover all these increased importing fees. That's the intent here, right?

[Murdoch]

Is there a benefit to ordering from Orbit? I usually order directly from the labels (or deep discount)

[therewillbeblus]

It’s often cheaper, especially if you’re ordering three+ items and get free shipping. I prefer Atomicmoviestore (they have a $50 threshold for free shipping instead, so usually two items) but they don’t carry as many titles. Though half the time they’re cheaper than Orbit

[Murdoch]

Ah gotcha, appreciate that. I've mainly ordered from MoC and Radiance, which were reasonable. Although with the new stateside tariffs I'm interested to see what the prices for U.S. customers will look like buying direct. Third party resellers may be a good idea at this stage...

[Mario G.]

10% extra is a lot better than I'd have expected from some of the numbers I've been hearing. I'll continue to support OrbitDVD at these rates

EDIT: Though it looks like he deleted all of the preorders from being orderable?

If I remember correctly from the livestream, since the reported tariff rate for UK and AUS is 10% they're going to add 5% extra to cost and eat the other 5% for pre-orders from those country. They'll do the full 10% after the pre-order. Pre-orders are currently down right now because they have to update the prices, but they should be back up in a couple days.

He also mentioned if the tariff is dropped between the purchase and release date they'll refund you via store credit. That on top of honoring existing pre-orders! I think they're being extremely charitable considering the kind of impact tariffs will have on their mostly import business, so I think they'll be my new go to even if it's a dollar or two more expensive than competitors.

I've been mostly placing pre-order with Atomic recently because it's easier to get to 50$ than get three items releasing around the same time, but I haven't heard a word about how they're handling existing pre-orders. I've heard Diabolik may not honors there's but I think that's hearsay based off a comment from the dude that runs it.