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domino harvey wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:45 pm Ethan Hawke is almost sure to be nominated-- last time I checked he was comfortably in the Top 5 Predix on Gold Derby, helped by the absolute bombing of First Man at all these precursor awards. Hawke has also been twice nominated already, so the Academy has shown a willingness to recognize him. First Reformed and Eighth Grade have been designated as this year's small movies that people want to champion, and I wouldn't be surprised to see both make it into Best Picture. But either way Hawke is a safe bet in a way he wasn't til recently

From your keyboard to God's ears!

Also, if everyone could bring Mary Poppins Returns not getting nominated for Best Picture to their prayer circles, that would be great, thanks. There is no upcoming film I want to see less and it looks like it may somehow sneak in at this point

Every single progressive person with 7+ figures in their net worth was obsessed with Hamilton and hasn't gotten the memo that very few people elsewhere in the country care. I am almost certain that obsession with Miranda is going to result in a nomination for the film and for him in Supporting Actor, for better or worse

Re: First Man, it's funny to see how things have swung back so quickly. A mid-October slow rollout ensured that the zeitgeist was consumed with, of all things, the Halloween reboot, plus A Star Is Born, and there's only so much pop cultural oxygen to go around for new release films. It's a time of year when only a film that a studio is supremely confident in the commercial prospects of is going to be able to stay above water, or it risks being immediately forgotten when the final wave of prestige releases rolls in. I'm still of the mind that early December, rolling to wide release right around the end of December (i.e. the new Neon model) is the way to go, always. If Phantom Thread released two weeks earlier last year, it could have swept the Oscars.

Shape of Water was the first December release to win Best Picture in nearly 15 years. Getting out early enough that you’re not afraid to send out screeners by Thanksgiving is key to momentum.

When you're right you're right - maybe scooch back by a couple extra weeks from what I said, seems most winners recently have gotten a limited release in the 2nd week of November and expanded from there.

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:10 pm Every single progressive person with 7+ figures in their net worth was obsessed with Hamilton and hasn't gotten the memo that very few people elsewhere in the country care. I am almost certain that obsession with Miranda is going to result in a nomination for the film and for him in Supporting Actor, for better or worse

Could also be people just really like Moana.

Yeah, there's one movie I've heard chatter about nonstop since it came out, Moana

I know poor people that like Hamilton

Those poor people, indeed

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:14 pm Yeah, there's one movie I've heard chatter about nonstop since it came out, Moana

Clearly you don’t have multiple 2- to 5-year-olds in your household.

Hamilton is sort of a mythical thing where I live. Like all country plebs you only heard about it from city people who opined about how hard it was to see.

But hey at least it's not the Sound of Music.

DarkImbecile wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:21 pm

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:14 pm Yeah, there's one movie I've heard chatter about nonstop since it came out, Moana

Clearly you don’t have multiple 2- to 5-year-olds in your household.

Looking forward to a big screen adaptation of that duck who wants grapes

DarkImbecile wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:21 pm

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:14 pm Yeah, there's one movie I've heard chatter about nonstop since it came out, Moana

Clearly you don’t have multiple 2- to 5-year-olds in your household.

Definitely the skewed thing. I appreciate LMM if just because Shiny and You're Welcome are actually enjoyable on the 40th listen of the day.

Vanity Fair's K. Austin Collins' top ten
1- First Reformed
2- Did You Wonder Who Fired the Gun?
3- You Were Never Really Here
4- If Beale Street Could Talk
5- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6- The Other Side of the Wind
7- Minding the Gap
8- Zama
9- First Man
10- Sollers Point

AACTA (Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts) winners (film awards):

BEST FILM: Sweet Country
BEST INDIE FILM: Jirga
BEST DIRECTOR: Warwick Thornton (Sweet Country)
BEST ACTOR: Hamilton Morris (Sweet Country)
BEST ACTRESS: Angourie Rice (Ladies In Black)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Simon Baker (Breath)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: David Tranter, Steven McGregor (Sweet Country)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
BEST FEATURE DOCUMENTARY: Gurrumul
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Warwick Thornton (Sweet Country)
BEST SOUND: Robert Mackenzie, Trevor Hope, Jed Dodge, Tara Webb (Breath)
BEST EDITING: Nick Meyers (Sweet Country)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Christopher Gordon (Ladies In Black)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Roger Ford, Lisa Thompson (Peter Rabbit)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Wendy Cork (Ladies In Black)
LONGFORD LYELL AWARD: Bryan Brown

I'm very surprised to see Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born nominated in the Drama categories rather than Musical, where films of this sort have been relegated in the past, even ones as serious and heavily dramatic as La Vie en Rose.

That lineup of nominees is enough to give someone cancer if they look at it for too long

I’m really surprised by the BlackKklansman picture nom, and even more so by the actor one. I liked Washington but he’s deadpan nearly to a fault.

I can’t believe Carter Burwell was snubbed for score. I feel like he’s set to be the next Roger Deakins, beloved below the line worker who will never be acknowledged. He only has two Academy nominations in 20+ years working. Did A Quiet Place even have a score?

I mean, I know not to expect much from the Globes, but that is an especially awful list of nominees from my perspective.

I look at their Best Score nominations and wonder if they even watched enough movies. Annihilation, Apostle, and The World is Yours had truly wonderful, inventive scores (it feels like The Other Side of the Wind is being treated as non-eligible from a lot of outlets, but Legrand deserves a nod, too), and the GG nominate some of the most rote, by-the-numbers stuff you can imagine. I mean, I know the movies I mentioned would never get nominated for anything, but just sayin'.

If I could point to one single thing that is really getting my goat, though, it's the utter lack of First Reformed. Prior to some of these critical year-ends that are really acknowledging First Reformed, I might not have expected anything since so few people saw the film--well, apparently the Golden Globe voting body didn't see it, either, because how they could nominate the three schmucks who wrote Green Book over one of Paul freakin' Scrader's best for screenplay or Cooper's or Hedges' performance over Hawke's... I can only chalk it up to ignorance.

MongooseCmr wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:08 pm I’m really surprised by the BlackKklansman picture nom, and even more so by the actor one. I liked Washington but he’s deadpan nearly to a fault.

I liked his performance enough to be unfazed by that, but Adam Driver doesn't really... do much in the film from an acting perspective? Certainly doesn't do enough to be one of the 5 best supporting actor performances of the year.

MongooseCmr wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:08 pmDid A Quiet Place even have a score?

Yes, a score by Marco Beltrami that's a blend of sound effects and droning orchestra. It isn't a score that was particularly well thought of in the film music community, but it seems to have crept through into awards season, perhaps due to how lauded the film was for its sound design.

Michel Legrand's The Other Side of the Wind is by far the best score I've heard this year, and it certainly deserved a nomination.

Persona wrote:
If I could point to one single thing that is really getting my goat, though, it's the utter lack of First Reformed. Prior to some of these critical year-ends that are really acknowledging First Reformed, I might not have expected anything since so few people saw the film--well, apparently the Golden Globe voting body didn't see it, either, because how they could nominate the three schmucks who wrote Green Book over one of Paul freakin' Scrader's best for screenplay or Cooper's or Hedges' performance over Hawke's... I can only chalk it up to ignorance.

Every year films perceived as “medicine” films (watch it! it’s good for you even if you hate it) are often the last and least likely to gain awards traction, even with doctors (critics) incessantly prescribing it.

Sometimes the “good for you” films break through in a big way, like Schindlers list, but it’s a pretty rare occurrence. And even it couldn’t get acting wins.

In regards to BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and A STAR IS BORN - I believe those two films actively submitted themselves to the Drama category as opposed to the Comedy/Musical category. This is clearly a strategic move in order to give the film more awards momentum (since most who win in Comedy/Musical are perceived as "inferior" to the Drama category - not saying that they are in fact "inferior," but that is the perception)

The nominations this year are pretty standard. Obviously there are clear omissions, but also keep in mind the number of voters. The HFPA is made up of only 90+ members, whereas the guilds are much bigger and have a lot of overlapping Academy members (the Academy's voting body, I believe, is 6,000+).

Why is Vice listed as a comedy/musical?