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I really try not to care about these at all, and I tell myself every year I won't, but that Decision to Leave snub is pretty ridiculous

Apperson wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:10 pm You say that Best Picture is locked up, I say that Everything Everywhere all at One has The Power of the Dog written all over it; a nominations leader hasn't won since The Shape of Water due to the backlash and increased negative campaigning it receives afterwards.

Fair point, but for one, Everything Everywhere doesn’t seem to have nearly as many detractors as Power of the Dog did, not to mention it has a lot more mainstream appeal (for the record, I’m not rooting for it to win, and while we’re comparing, I think Power of the Dog is a far better film).

And secondly, there doesn’t seem to be a clear alternative at the moment. Yes, The Fabelmans won the Golden Globe, but the overall response seems kind of muted, and it seems a lot more in danger of backlash and negative campaigning than Everything Everywhere. Plus the BAFTAs all but shafting it might be telling. Maybe Top Gun, but its only place to pick up momentum until the Oscars is the PGA, so that’s now a make-or-break deal for that movie, and I’d suggest that if it does win there, that alone won’t make it a frontrunner. The only other nominee I think has any chance is The Banshees of Inisherin, but for whatever it’s worth — and it unfortunately seem to mean a lot to many voters — it’s the only major contender that doesn’t have a “narrative” for it to win. Oh, and if we’re talking about backlash, even though it’s my personal favorite among these four, I also realize what a social media shitstorm it would create for Best Picture to go to the only top contender with an all-white cast, especially with Everything Everywhere being right there.

I’m not saying it has it all locked up, but right now if I were to assess the chances, I’d go with something like this:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 55%
The Fabelmans: 20%
Top Gun: Maverick: 15%
The Banshees of Inisherin: 8%
2% chance for anything else

DarkImbecile wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:01 pm All right, I'll have a scoring update up shortly once I check this ridiculously large spreadsheet for errors, but the variance between users using this new scoring system is much larger than before.

Until then, biggest surprises based on user predictions were Brian Tyree Henry, A House Made of Splinters, Riseborough, and Ruben Östlund, each of which no one out of 13 participants predicted; biggest snubs were Decision to Leave in International Film and Top Gun in cinematography, which everyone predicted, and Dano (11/13) and Deadwyler (11/13).

I should add to this that no one picked Everything Everywhere All at Once for Score either

ryannichols7 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:24 pm I really try not to care about these at all, and I tell myself every year I won't, but that Decision to Leave snub is pretty ridiculous

It’s a horrible snub. Tang Wei really should have gotten one for Best Actress, too

Never Cursed wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:11 pm Good on the voters for propelling de Armas to a deserved Actress nomination over some pretty toxic press treatment. Also, bad on the voters for shutting out Chazelle's movie in all major categories (mostly for movies that no one outside of awards season voters have actually seen)

EDIT: Didn't realize that Taylor Swift failed to get an Original Song nom; steering clear of certain parts of the internet accordingly

Swift was aiming for a Best Live Action Short nom, too, and she wasn’t long-listed

Best Animated Feature is as bland, safe, and Anglocentric as I thought it would be.

ryannichols7 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:24 pm I really try not to care about these at all, and I tell myself every year I won't, but that Decision to Leave snub is pretty ridiculous

Ridiculous but not at all surprising, I think. They went all in on Parasite a few years back, but somehow that's the only Korean film that has ever been nominated in any category. I don't know if the International Film committee has some sort of weird bias against Korean cinema, but I think it's fair to say at this point that any awards body that has only recognized a single Korean film in its entire history is pretty shameful.

beamish14 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:30 pmBest Animated Feature is as bland, safe, and Anglocentric as I thought it would be.

Of all the non-Pinocchio Netflix movies that could've made it, The Sea Beast might actually be the best one, it's only relative fault being its CGI animation compared to the stop-motion of Wendell and Wild or the 2D of My Father's Dragon.

The other 4 nominees were all completely safe.

Kazuo Ishiguro is now the second Nobel Prize winner to have an Oscar nomination

Terrific list of noms. Can't believe the surplus of love for Triangle of Sadness, but clearly Criterion had their ear to the ground and felt the vibrations. Kicking myself for cutting Brian Tyree Henry at the very last second, I figured he'd be a more likely nom than he was listed in the stats because Hollywood loves him for all the right reasons, but ignored my gut

beamish14 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:28 pm It’s a horrible snub. Tang Wei really should have gotten one for Best Actress, too

I agree. Her performance was probably my favorite of the year and definitely my favorite over everyone who was nominated.

Overall it doesn't feel that surprising - I should say none of my favorites weren't likely nominees going in, and those that were, I didn't really like all that much, so when the whole thing leaves me pretty cold, it's kind of what I'd expect. I'd like to see EO win though.

OK, Oscar Game Participants: I've posted screen captures of my full scoring sections for each player below the summary — if you could do me a favor and check (or even just spot check) the number of winners I'm showing for you in each category, that would help ensure I don't have any entry errors across 1,500+ nomination predictions. Remember, the multipliers are even larger for the winners at the ceremony itself, so certain Members of the Year might want to swing for big upsets to catch up there!

Summary (Player: [# of categories totally correct(categories)] *# of correct picks only predicted by that player(picks)* top/mid/low categories score: total score)

MV88: [5(Actor, Supporting Actress,Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Makeup & Hairstyling) *3("This is a Life"-Song, Bardo-Cinematography, The Sea Beast-Animated Feature)* 131.46/167.96/28.56: 327.98

Pavel: [3(Actor, Original Screenplay, Sound) *0* 139.59/141.08/22.2: 302.87

Computer Raheem: [1(Supporting Actress) *0* 141.15/126.23/17.26: 284.64

DarkImbecile: [3(Original Screenplay, Sound, VFX) *0* 149.29/113.11/13.21: 275.61

Toland's Mitchell: [0] *0* 125.46/105.48/23.65: 254.59

Apperson: [2(Actor, Production Design] *0* 133.69/96.24/18.16: 248.09

therewillbeblus: [4(Actor, Original Screenplay, Makeup & Hairstyling, VFX)] *0* 125.89/102.96/17: 245.85

soundchaser: [3(Actor, Production Design, Sound)] *0* 120.32/108.01/14.84: 243.17

Never Cursed: [2(Original Screenplay, VFX) *0* 123.32/93.13/14.84: 231.29

lacritfan: [1(Actor)] *1("Stranger at the Gate"-Documentary Short)* 117.66/97.46/7.24: 222.35

bottlesofsmoke: [2(Actor, Animated Short)] *0* 107.77/86.61/27.34: 221.72

geoffcowgill: [0] *0* 112.81/73.09/17.06: 202.96

swo17: [0] *0* 109.59/66.64/12.64: 188.87

I'm just noticing I cut your name off on that last scoring sheet, Toland's Mitchell

Wait, I picked 2 longshots--why didn't I win?

Finally, my username pays off.

(Did a spot check - looks like all my numbers are right. (Sadly.))

hearthesilence wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:04 pm

beamish14 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:28 pm It’s a horrible snub. Tang Wei really should have gotten one for Best Actress, too

I agree. Her performance was probably my favorite of the year and definitely my favorite over everyone who was nominated.

Overall it doesn't feel that surprising - I should say none of my favorites weren't likely nominees going in, and those that were, I didn't really like all that much, so when the whole thing leaves me pretty cold, it's kind of what I'd expect. I'd like to see EO win though.

Was this a movie on most people’s radar? It’s seems to have done okay commercially, but nothing that suggests a groundswell of support and it’s frankly not been talked about all that much.

The current nominees seem a fine overview of how America saw movies at large this year.

beamish14 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:39 pm Kazuo Ishiguro is now the second Nobel Prize winner to have an Oscar nomination

To have an Oscar nom for Screenplay, yeah, but he’s the third overall I think. George Bernard Shaw and Bob Dylan are the others (both Oscar winners too)

The Whale snub in Adapted Screenplay is one of the more pleasant surprises, and especially brutal considering that its place was taken by the ultimate hackneyed script, Top Gun: Maverick. But I agree that derivative mechanics trump offensively poor theatre dialogue, so there's that

Oh wow, I definitely did not expect to be in the lead, but obviously I'm happy I am! I kind of figured I'd be the only one predicting "This is a Life" to be nominated for Best Original Song and was pretty stoked when I saw that it actually was (not because I wanted it to be nominated, mind you, just because I knew that would help my prediction score a lot), but even then, I did not remotely suspect I'd be on top overall, so wow.

I won't get my hopes up about maintaining my lead after the winners are announced, though, because I never seem to do as well with those. But I'm happy to take this victory along the way!

Looking over the numbers and double-checking them with my predictions, all my 1st column data is accurate, and all my 2nd column data accurately adds up to the 3rd column. I lack the time and patience to check if the second column numbers are accurate, but I trust DI on this one!

So...Top Gun gets a screenplay nom, but not a cinematography nom? What the heck is that about? Anyhoo, I'm glad the Academy found some love for Triangle of Sadness. Still, they prefer mediocre war dramas over very good comic book films, oh well.

Pavel wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:39 pm

beamish14 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:39 pm Kazuo Ishiguro is now the second Nobel Prize winner to have an Oscar nomination

To have an Oscar nom for Screenplay, yeah, but he’s the third overall I think. George Bernard Shaw and Bob Dylan are the others (both Oscar winners too)

Ah, you’re right. I was actually thinking of Harold Pinter, so he’s one of four

Academy Present Janet Yang very publicly endorsed Everything Everywhere over the weekend, which is unorthodox to say the least.

Richard Brody's alternate Oscar nominations, and despite my bewilderment at how much he likes Amsterdam, I generally and strongly prefer what he's come up with.

Somehow I missed that among the Razzie nominees was a 12-year-old, which the show has now apologized for.

WGA nominations:

Spoiler

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All At Once, Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert; A24

The Fabelmans, Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner; Universal Pictures

The Menu, Written by Seth Reiss & Will Tracy; Searchlight Pictures

Nope, Written by Jordan Peele; Universal Pictures

Tár, Written by Todd Field; Focus Features

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Screenplay by Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole, Story by Ryan Coogler, Based on the Marvel Comics; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Written by Rian Johnson; Netflix

She Said, Screenplay by Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Based on the New York Times Investigation by Jodi Kantor, Megan Twohey and Rebecca Corbett and the Book She Said by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey; Universal Pictures

Top Gun: Maverick, Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Based on Characters Created by Jim Cash & Jack Epps, Jr.; Paramount Pictures

Women Talking, Screenplay by Sarah Polley, Based upon the Book by Miriam Toews; Orion Pictures/MGM

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY

2nd Chance, Written by Ramin Bahrani; Showtime Documentary Films

Downfall: The Case Against Boeing, Written by Mark Bailey & Keven McAlester; Netflix

Last Flight Home, Written by Ondi Timoner; MTV Documentary Films

Moonage Daydream, Written by Brett Morgen; Neon

¡Viva Maestro!, Written by Theodore Braun; Greenwich Entertainment

MV88 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:17 pm Oh wow, I definitely did not expect to be in the lead, but obviously I'm happy I am! I kind of figured I'd be the only one predicting "This is a Life" to be nominated for Best Original Song and was pretty stoked when I saw that it actually was (not because I wanted it to be nominated, mind you, just because I knew that would help my prediction score a lot), but even then, I did not remotely susp

(Orchestra starts playing you off.)