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personally felt like Moore was a lock when The Substance got nominated for more than just Actress. it's against the usual genre for the Academy, but as we've established they love a comeback/"owed" story and Moore very much ticks that box, not to mention it feels like she is the movie

I'm trying not to be biased but I genuinely can't see Anora winning big. I know my extreme distaste for the director is documented elsewhere here, but it feels like the kind of movie that Letterboxd and Reddit love that didn't hit that big to a wider audience. I may be totally wrong, didn't expect it to win Cannes either with Kapadia and Rasoulof...

Yeah, I totally get the feeling that Moore has the momentum, especially with The Substance overperforming in nominations. The Academy does love a redemption arc, and she’s got the “overdue” narrative working in her favor. Plus, if the film itself is divisive, her performance seems to be the one thing everyone agrees on.

As for Anora, I see what you mean—it has that very online cinephile appeal, but I’m not sure it translates to Academy voters in the same way. That said, Cannes surprises don’t always carry over to Oscar wins. It could still sneak in somewhere, but I wouldn’t put money on it going all the way.

I think it’s hilarious that there’s a nobody journo taking credit to Variety for these old tweet discoveries when all of it started on AW on the same day in what I’m suuuuure is just a coincidence

ryannichols7 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 7:58 pm I'm looking at Conclave and The Brutalist as the "safe" choices

I can easily see Conclave winning BP. It's exactly the kind of serious but not challenging prestige drama packed with beloved actors the Academy likes. The Brutalist (though I haven't seen it) feels in the realm of Tár and The Zone of Interest—not quite middlebrow enough for the Academy, and Anora seems to skew young. The average Academy member is 62-63.

I'm mystified that Isabella Rossellini got a nomination for Conclave, though. She barely registers. I would never begrudge her any award, so I'll just pretend this is a make-up nomination for La chimera.

Matt wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:04 amI would never begrudge her any award, so I'll just pretend this is a make-up nomination for La chimera.

Had this exact conversation with a friend an hour ago re: IR. La chimera got to American audiences too late and awkwardly, it's a real shame

Netflix is now distributing new ads that remove Gascon and references to her nomination, which I can understand but it's also still funny

I do feel that Demi Moore & Kieran Culkin are locked for their Oscar wins. Zoe Saldana feels shaky now with the Gascon tweet revelations and it would be a real shame is she missed out due to them because she has nothing to do with them.

Best Actor, Director & Picture feel up in the air at this point.

Sorry to keep updating on this but this is such a once in a lifetime meltdown that I am still watching it unfurl with great interest: Netflix has cut Gascon off and is no longer footing the bill for any of her remaining awards show appearances, interviews, &c.

Aunt Peg wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:19 am I do feel that Demi Moore & Kieran Culkin are locked for their Oscar wins. Zoe Saldana feels shaky now with the Gascon tweet revelations and it would be a real shame is she missed out due to them because she has nothing to do with them.

Best Actor, Director & Picture feel up in the air at this point.

I'm okay with the woman who grotesquely disrespected Nina Simone losing an Oscar for the highly problematic, controversial movie that she's nominated for being in. she can kick rocks

the hour long Gascon interview is truly next level stuff. if you guys need a laugh...I'm right there with dom

domino harvey wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 11:52 pm Sorry to keep updating on this but this is such a once in a lifetime meltdown that I am still watching it unfurl with great interest: Netflix has cut Gascon off and is no longer footing the bill for any of her remaining awards show appearances, interviews, &c.

I hope everyone involved with the film and all of its supporters in the HFPA are presently having nightmares about it, and about this incredible sentence in particular:

Depending on how much she wants to set fire to her costar, there's a path for Saldana to paint herself as a victim of circumstance and still get her Oscar... but I still think we're looking at a historic 0/13 on Oscar night.

I think what a lot of people are missing is that Oscar voting still has not started, and won't for another week. So we're not talking about anyone who already had their mind made up and submitted before this happened-- everyone voting for this movie will be doing so in the wake of this all time PR disaster.... which is still ongoing and derailing. And there is a decent chance that Emilia Perez wins something at another show between now and when voting ends, and I guarantee you that it will be awkward at best (and probably much worse than that) and make it easy for Academy voters to realize that this isn't the way.

I'm pretty convinced it's gonna go winless. there's genuinely no way anyone can vote for it at this point, or at least in any substantial number. Saldana would have to really try and separate herself but I don't think it's gonna happen. this will be worse and funnier than Boyhood

EDIT: I had no clue The Color Purple went 11 nominations without a win. recency bias as I just remember how confident everyone was that Boyhood was gonna sweep and ended up only winning the first award of the night

Tied with the Turning Point, btw

I guess Cotillard said no

It eats up too much time anyway and it's so sappy.

ryannichols7 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 12:46 am I'm pretty convinced it's gonna go winless. there's genuinely no way anyone can vote for it at this point, or at least in any substantial number. Saldana would have to really try and separate herself but I don't think it's gonna happen. this will be worse and funnier than Boyhood

EDIT: I had no clue The Color Purple went 11 nominations without a win. recency bias as I just remember how confident everyone was that Boyhood was gonna sweep and ended up only winning the first award of the night

Wasn't Birdman and Grand Budapest the expected winners that year? I remember Boyhood being the fantasy win, but Birdman winning most awards during that race.
And nothing funny about that lose...

Bookies seldom get it wrong but Saldana is still nailed on for BSA and The Brutalist still very likely to win BP/BD. Moore is shortening even more on BA and though I've not seen The Substance, I don't buy into this idea that Moore is owed anything when her filmography is pretty slim in quality. If she wins, she should deserve it for this performance (which maybe she does). Perhaps there is a sense that Moore won't get this role again whereas Madison might get Oscar-worthy roles in future?

I think she’s quite good in it (even if my main rooting interest in the movie is Qualley) but I admit I mostly want her to win because what I’ve sampled of her work tells me she’s a much better actress than just the titles in her filmography would suggest. I don’t think she’s “owed” an Oscar because none of my sample size would’ve had a shot at Oscars (or in the case of If These Walls Could Talk, it wasn’t even eligible), but she’s terrific in Alan Rudolph’s Mortal Thoughts and Alain Berliner’s Passion of Mind, the latter being where she first met Coralie Fargeat (working as a 1st AD).

Ghost is probably the closest she’s got to an owed performance.

I don’t think Moore is owed an Oscar as rectification of some past oversight (à la Glenn Close) as she is a Hollywood survival story. 45 years of good performances in mostly mediocre or bad films and TV, once the highest-paid actress in Hollywood. They love when an actor finally gets a role worthy of their talent. And the way she’s stuck by Bruce Willis in his illness being one of those feel-good human interest stories only adds to her appeal.

That said, I think she’s no-joke truly good in Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle, really giving a dumb action movie villain role her all.

I agree, I'd go so far as to call it her best work that I've seen

Matt wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:12 am It eats up too much time anyway and it's so sappy.

Not to sound like an old man, but what happened to just showing a clip of the movie with really good acting? Or a clip synced with the screenplay for the writing categories? Why does everything have to be a boring stage bit now?

mfunk9786 wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:33 am

Matt wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:12 am It eats up too much time anyway and it's so sappy.

Not to sound like an old man, but what happened to just showing a clip of the movie with really good acting? Or a clip synced with the screenplay for the writing categories? Why does everything have to be a boring stage bit now?

I think the answer to this question is unfortunately the answer to many bad artistic choices in these kind of events. The answer being that business executives or a committee are making these decisions and not anyone with creative/artistic tendencies. The Oscars are always trying new shit and for my money they tend to miss the mark more than they hit. I genuinely do no understand the need to try to reinvent the wheel for no real discernible reason.

dda1996a wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 6:12 am

ryannichols7 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 12:46 am I'm pretty convinced it's gonna go winless. there's genuinely no way anyone can vote for it at this point, or at least in any substantial number. Saldana would have to really try and separate herself but I don't think it's gonna happen. this will be worse and funnier than Boyhood

EDIT: I had no clue The Color Purple went 11 nominations without a win. recency bias as I just remember how confident everyone was that Boyhood was gonna sweep and ended up only winning the first award of the night

Wasn't Birdman and Grand Budapest the expected winners that year? I remember Boyhood being the fantasy win, but Birdman winning most awards during that race.
And nothing funny about that lose...

Correct. I know because I was rooting for Boyhood and thought it was a lock until Birdman started cleaning up during awards season. It was clear it had gained a lot more momentum, and by Oscar night, Boyhood was definitely the underdog.

I actually enjoyed Birdman, and people like Emmanuel Lubezki deserved their Oscar for nailing a huge technical challenge. (The production design wasn't even nominated but it was so essential in making everything work that it feels wrongfully overlooked.) But while it was mostly entertaining and an impressive technical feat, I much preferred Boyhood and Grand Budapest Hotel.

mfunk9786 wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:33 am

Matt wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:12 am It eats up too much time anyway and it's so sappy.

Not to sound like an old man, but what happened to just showing a clip of the movie with really good acting? Or a clip synced with the screenplay for the writing categories? Why does everything have to be a boring stage bit now?

Being generous, I suppose a reason for having the previous winners introduce the nominees could be so that people flipping the channels might catch Matthew McConaughey or Al Pacino on screen and keep watching to see someone they've never heard of win the award.

Apparently they will be doing this "Fab 5" format for some below-the-line awards.