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A bunch of thoughts:
The Lady Gaga snub might be the biggest of my lifetime. She was the only person to get every precursor nom. BAFTA has 0 in common for Actress ahahaha
Buckley, Worst Person in Screenplay (that got my hopes up for an Actress nom), Kristen and Penelope are great surprises. Dench (no precursor support) over Balfe (support in all the precursors) is crazy.
Nightmare Alley was a bit like Ford v Ferrari, a few techs and Best Picture.
Being the Ricardos overperfomed with Actors but underperformed everywhere else.
The Power of the Dog is very clearly the frontrunner now after getting in Jesse and stuff like Sound and Production Design.
Happy that West Side Story got things I was expecting it to miss like Cinematography (no Belfast!) and Director.
The Rescue missing Documentary is crazy, but they always snub frontrunners there.

Surprised at no technical noms for the French Dispatch, Anderson seemed like a perennial there

aox wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:27 pm

DarkImbecile wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:10 pm Gotta say, that’s a much more solid, eclectic set of nominees than I expected to get

What did you expect to see nominated that you thought was a shoo-in? Even if you thought it was trashy "Oscar bait"?

My favorite non-nominations amongst the widely-predicted were Gaga in Actress, Belfast in Editing and Cinematography, Ricardos for Picture and Original Screenplay, Leto in Supporting Actor, and, of course, “You’re Dead Helen” in Live Action Short just to spite that toxic fanbase.

Honestly, if Villeneuve had beaten out Branagh, I’d have very little to complain about in the way of undeserving nominations

I would have loved Ricardo’s to get screenplay to be honest.

Not to spoil things too much, but it looks like the Shorts categories were a massacre for basically everyone.

Agog at these for a lot of reasons (mostly good!) - I'll happily cede defeat to domino if it means a full share of nominations for the Hamaguchi and the Trier

Like Parasite which landed in both Best Picture and Best Foreign Film, this year it's Flee, but with three! Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary, and Best Foreign Film.

I viewed it too weeks ago and was really floored by its unique approach to the documentary. If you haven't seen it, do yourself the favor. The closest comparison I think of is Linklater's Waking Life, but this is next level. Not only is it a fresh masterful approach to oral history and documentary, but it's also beautiful and actually has a very compelling story with a dynamite ending. Highly recommended and I think it is on Hulu.

soundchaser wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:35 pm Not to spoil things too much, but it looks like the Shorts categories were a massacre for basically everyone.

We collectively went 11/45 in Live Action Short!

Scattered thoughts:
Biggest shock for me is Dune missing Best Director. This is Ridley Scott/the Martian all over again. Knew they’d go for Buckley, it’s like Florence Pugh a couple years ago. Stunned at the Lady Gaga snub and Ricardos over performing in acting noms but getting shut out of Best Picture. French Dispatch getting shut out is wild— a good reminder that the tech categories have a long history of ignoring him, GBH being a one time exception. Good on Stewart for pulling off the nomination after all, I really thought she was toast. Congrats to the Drive My Car optimists! And now Jesse Plemmons beats everyone else from Friday Night Lights to the Oscars— Landry played the long game (it helps he’s established himself as a reliable utility player in the intervening years)

DarkImbecile wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:57 pm Honestly, if Villeneuve had beaten out Branagh, I’d have very little to complain about in the way of undeserving nominations

I seriously considered omitting Villeneuve from Director out of spite, so this is a happy moment for me- though it seemed too crazy to actually predict! I hate Branagh's film but at least it makes sense that a section of people would melt over it

DarkImbecile wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:20 am BEST PICTURE
Nightmare Alley[/i] (just for twbb)

And then there is this nightmare. I don't know how you did this trick

So here's my scoring for the nomination round, and in case that's too small to read, here are the totals:

Pavel: 316
dekadetia: 307
Never Cursed: 305
Toland's Mitchell: 305
DarkImbecile: 304
Apperson: 303
soundchaser: 301
twbb: 301
domino harvey: 298

Please double check my math for your own scores if you have any doubts, as it's a near certainty I made a mistake or two over 1080 guesses

Observations:

• Pavel is obviously connected to the bookies getting inside info
• domino should be proud to have nailed some of the biggest surprises
• I was happy to be the only contestant to get all the Best Picture nominees, but I got absolutely smoked in the technical/short nominations
• Only Never Cursed got Best Actor entirely correct

Feel free to post your predictions for winners in this thread or via PM to me between now and 2PM ET on Sunday, March 27th; each winner will be worth five points, so it's certainly possible to overtake Pavel, assuming he doesn't cheat again

Villeneuve getting locked out is maybe Hollywood getting back at him after the brouhaha with Warners about how the film was being released.

Or maybe it was ridiculous for him to be a frontrunner in the first place?

Thank you for doing the tabulation, DarkImbecile! I look forward to getting smoked by Pavel again in a month.

Interesting that there was only an 18 point spread. I’ll gladly take my last place trophy, as I (badly) strategized to make guesses I didn’t necessarily believe would occur. But it wouldn’t have been too much different if I’d played it safe, so I’m glad to go down swinging!

therewillbeblus wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:16 pm Or maybe it was ridiculous for him to be a frontrunner in the first place?

I know you don’t like his film but this is by far the highest grossing film in Oscar contention, he’s already been nominated, and contrary to flyonthewall’s hypothesis, I think the industry widely supported his push to embrace theatrical, it just didn’t materialize in a nom

Yes, thank you for tabulating, DI!

We should all take a moment and be grateful that the directing branch has finally stopped nominating Adam McKay

Thank you, DI, for tabulating and keeping the Oscar pools going!

domino harvey wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:21 pm

therewillbeblus wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:16 pm Or maybe it was ridiculous for him to be a frontrunner in the first place?

I know you don’t like his film but this is by far the highest grossing film in Oscar contention, he’s already been nominated, and contrary to flyonthewall’s hypothesis, I think the industry widely supported his push to embrace theatrical, it just didn’t materialize in a nom

I'm aware of the gross and why he's being celebrated, but I'm pushing back on the hypothesis for similar reasons- just communicating it in a dismissive way. Clearly he's well-liked, but I suspect that when it came down to it, enough people realized it was silly to allot him the prestigious honor of belonging to the best directors of the year club, and still award the film for everything else. So yeah, I don't think it's 'bad blood' either

domino harvey wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:23 pm We should all take a moment and be grateful that the directing branch has finally stopped nominating Adam McKay

Super grateful, though it's still ridiculous that the film is being given any big noms (pic and screenplay) given how much of a mess it is- but I'll gladly take the W in the BD category. However, I'm not holding my breath on this getting sustained in any sort of 'directing branch coming to their senses' rationale, especially if his next smug leftist political satire is, like, not universally panned by everyone? We've now seen how even when everyone hates one of his movies, it still remains a strong contender racking up big nominations!

For the record, I think this is handedly his best film of the last three "I'm a serious director" efforts, though it 100% doesn't deserve a single nomination, and the bar was so low already

Looking over these noms again, A Hero getting snubbed in International for the film from Bhutan is wild— but given that it has an interesting title (“A Yak in the Classroom”!) I guess I can’t be too shocked

Probably a sense among voters that Farhadi (a two-time winner) has received enough recognition

BAFTA is now officially useless as a precursor indicator— it went 0/5 in Best Actress, for starters

Trier beating Sorkin in screenplay still feels like the most shocking upset, but so well-deserved. It feels blasphemous to say, but I think it’s even better than PTA’s this year. An all-timer, really

I’m most disappointed by Bradley Cooper not getting a supporting nom, and I’m not one of the people who thought he was anywhere close to the best thing in that movie. I just want to see more 10-min loose and untamed supporting parts get recognized over, say, JK Simmons’ fine but unspectacular perf getting a nod just because he’s JK Simmons and in the movie more

Jessica Chastain when asked about this year’s noms, from Variety

Well, I’m so happy Paolo Sorrentino has been acknowledged. I haven’t seen the full list, just because I’m literally on a set right now. Paolo Sorrentino, I think he’s like the Fellini of our time. I’m obsessed with his work, and I was told he was acknowledged.

The Female Pope, let’s make it happen!