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Nasir007 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:39 pm

movielocke wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:55 am I understand the three hour barrier for the east coast sake, 8pm to 11pm is a lot, going to midnight is bad. Four hours wouldn’t matter as much on the west coast, 5 pm to 9 pm, most people would just skip the first hour, but the three hour time constraint is more a function of geography than anything else.

I think more than geography, it simply isn't an interesting show at all. You have garbage Oscar-bait movies winning awards and gushing fluffy thanks or limp political proclamations. There's also the fact that even as a 'contest' there is little intrigue as to who will be the winners.

The kind of ceremony it is, it is simply not interesting beyond 3 hours. I would even ambitiously make attempts to cut it down even further. Maybe to 2:45 or even 2:30 if possible.

The academy clearly cares about ratings. They fret every year about them and relevancy. I think the shortest route to salvation might be to cut out everything extraneous and have a lean, mean and tight show that's over in a heartbeat.

... a 2 hour and 45 minute heartbeat.

They should just air The Greatest Showman and announce the winners over a crawl

Nasir007 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:39 pmI think more than geography, it simply isn't an interesting show at all. You have garbage Oscar-bait movies winning awards and gushing fluffy thanks or limp political proclamations. There's also the fact that even as a 'contest' there is little intrigue as to who will be the winners.

There's probably a lot of truth to this. The Oscars used to revolve around popular movies and big movie stars, and now it's an insular bubble of a thing. And the thing is, I'm not sure that the Oscars have either a) gotten better at identifying the best movies/performances of the year, or b) been honoring better movies/performances than back in the 1980s and 1990s when the Oscars had a much higher Q rating among the general public than they do now. Or so it seems to me.

There are a lot of factors that go into this, of course, and many of them are beyond the Academy's control. There's no magic wand to wave to just fix declining ratings and such - times change, etc. But I do think it's true that the show sucks and is probably completely unwatchable to people who aren't invested in the Oscars just because they're the Oscars, and I don't think that was always the case.

intrigue is a function of attention. most people have no idea what will win, because they're not following the awards sports season the way fanatics do online. for those that do, things are often very low on 'what will win' but for the vast majority of the show's audience the opposite is true.

A ruthless show betrays a big part of what the audience wants. Sure you could have a shorter Superbowl football game if you made new clock rules for the championship that made sure it was a lean mean tight show, but the audience tuning in to watch the superbowl doesn't want a lean mean tight show. In general, the audience tuning in to watch an awards pageant doesn't want a lean, mean, tight show; they want the status quo pomp and circumstance, you can trim down things here and there, and need to, because it's a balance between bloated and bland that needs to be struck.

Any awards show's biggest problem is the walking up to the stage portion of the show, walkups usually account for 12-20% of the run time, which is about as much time as speeches usually account for (sometimes walkups are more of the run time than speeches.

But no one wants to lose the reaction moment and the hugs and kisses of the SO / compatriots of the winner, so it's a stage management issue, can you reserve 20 seats near the front and in the aisles (nominees and their compatriots) that you can cycle those seats 20 times during the show between categories to reduce stage walk up time? Can you do it, without impinging on the status of the celebrities that the network insists be in the first two rows (and the celebs themselves would insist upon)?

To an extent they do this already, but even if you went really aggressive to reduce cumulative walkup times, at best you're going to reduce it 50%, meaning walkups will still account for 6-10% of the show. At that amount of savings you have to calculate the value of all the efforts to reduce time and see if it's worth the risk of implementing it, both in disrupting the show, and in adding a lot of stage management complexity to a live show as it's now twenty new points (times five) where something can go wrong. You'd probably have to implement more rehearsal time for the choreography of moving the down ballot nominees (and their SOs) around during the ceremony, much like a wedding rehearsal, which is an added expense for the awards show to take on and coordinate.

And what is 6-10% of a three hour show? a 180 minute show is about 125-ish minutes of show content, so you're looking at a savings of 7.5 minutes to 12.5 minutes. Most awards shows go over time between 0-6 minutes, with some exceptions, the oscars chief among them, but most of the time, the overage is not as severe, we just remember only the edge case most severe overages (a show going 40 minutes over for instance) and then misapply this memorable experience to the past and assume that the oscars always go over this amount.

But did you note that you can do all this intervention to save 8 minutes, but the show typically only goes about 6 minutes over, now you've added an additional risk of being under time. What are the penalties the network imposes on the show if they don't deliver the full contracted amount of content? how's that stack up against the penalties for going over time, which is the worse scenario for the producers?

It also has some to do with the democratization of access and reduction of the expert that you see causing anti-institutional feeling everywhere. "Who are you to say what best picture is. I think it's X."

Brian C wrote:

Nasir007 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:39 pmI think more than geography, it simply isn't an interesting show at all. You have garbage Oscar-bait movies winning awards and gushing fluffy thanks or limp political proclamations. There's also the fact that even as a 'contest' there is little intrigue as to who will be the winners.

There's probably a lot of truth to this. The Oscars used to revolve around popular movies and big movie stars, and now it's an insular bubble of a thing. And the thing is, I'm not sure that the Oscars have either a) gotten better at identifying the best movies/performances of the year, or b) been honoring better movies/performances than back in the 1980s and 1990s when the Oscars had a much higher Q rating among the general public than they do now. Or so it seems to me.

There are a lot of factors that go into this, of course, and many of them are beyond the Academy's control. There's no magic wand to wave to just fix declining ratings and such - times change, etc. But I do think it's true that the show sucks and is probably completely unwatchable to people who aren't invested in the Oscars just because they're the Oscars, and I don't think that was always the case.

The Oscars used to reliably nominate at least one or more popular movie(s) per year, but even in the 80s you add awards bait and lil obscure darlings like the Dresser getting best picture nominations. Things shifted after the independent movement gained mainstream success in the late eighties early nineties. Combined with bad corporate mergers and bad creative decision making at the major studios and the rise of a new industry of people (like Weinstein) focused on a moneyball approach to harvesting Oscar and awards nominations: we eventually get to the system we are at today with very little popular films nominated and all moneyball productions (aka awards bait) dominating the awards discourse.

Not that this is necessarily a driver of the polarization between popular movies and moneyball productions, but the widening gulf between what the two is responsible for most of the ratings decline of the Oscars.

My Oscar predix:

BEST PIC

the Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon-Ho
Sam Mendes
Todd Phillips
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Taron Egerton
Eddie Murphy
Joaquin Phoenix

BEST ACTRESS

Awkwafina
Scarlett Johansson
Saorise Ronan
Charlize Theron
Renee Zellweger

SUP ACTOR

Tom Hanks
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt
Willem Dafoe

SUP ACTRESS

Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Florence Pugh
Margot Robbie

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

the Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
the Two Popes

ORIGINAL SCREEPLAY

the Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Parasite

I'll give it a go, pretty standard with a few wild cards/wishful thinking:

BEST PICTURE

1917
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR

Greta Gerwig
Bong Joon-Ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino

BEST ACTOR

Antonio Banderas
Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Sandler

BEST ACTRESS

Awkwafina
Scarlett Johansson
Saorise Ronan
Charlize Theron
Renee Zellweger

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks
Anthony Hopkins
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern
Jennifer Lopez
Florence Pugh
Margot Robbie
Taylor Russell

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
the Two Popes

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

I'll keep track of any predictions in these eight categories and tabulate who calls the most correct nominations for the benefit and gratification of no one regardless, but I'd also be open to a friendly competition wherein the winner(s) get to pick a film for the other participants to post some thoughts on (or something like that) if others would be interested.

Sure, I’m game

Best Picture
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Noah Baumbach
Bong Joon-Ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Taron Egerton
Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Sandler

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo
Scarlett Johansson
Saorise Ronan
Charlize Theron
Renee Zellweger

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe
Tom Hanks
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt

Supporting Actress
Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Florence Pugh
Margot Robbie

Original Screenplay
Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
the Two Popes

(I was going to pick winners too, but I assume we'll do a similar game once the nominees are announced.)

domino harvey wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:16 pm Sure, I’m game

OK, so unless your post specifically says otherwise, if you post your predictions for the 2020 Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences nominations in the Picture, Directing, Acting, and Screenplay categories in this thread before 8AM Eastern on Monday, January 13, 2020, you are entered in the CF.org Oscar Nominations Predictions Sweepstakes, with a chance to win the Grand Prize of: naming one (1) film and politely suggesting that all non-winning contestants see and and post about that film within a reasonable time frame.

Scoring:

• All non-BP categories: one point per correct prediction
• BP: one point per correct prediction, minus one point for each predicted film above or below the correct number of nominees

Right then, lets give it a whirl.

Best Picture

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. The Irishman
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Joker
7. Marriage Story
8. Little Women
   ================
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. Uncut Gems

Best Director

Bong Joon Ho- Parasite
Sam Mendes- 1917
Benny and Josh Safdie- Uncut Gems
Martin Scorsese- The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas- Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver- Marriage Story
Taron Egerton_ Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix- Joker

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo- Harriet
Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan- Little Women
Charlize Theron- Bombshell
Renee Zellweger- Judy

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins- The Two Popes
Al Pacino- The Irishman
Joe Pesci- The Irishman
Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern- Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson- Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez- Hustlers
Florence Pugh- Little Women
Margot Robbie- Bombshell

Best Original Screenplay

The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

So for BP, are you predicting that all 10 of those are nominated or just the top 8?

Seems like he's predicting there will only be 8, but if there are 10 he should be able to get points for his last two guesses

That's the basic gist of it, if there are 8 Best Picture nominees the threshold would go up to my 8 and exclude the bottom two films.

If that's the case, let me spend a wildly inordinate amount of time to clarify the second bullet point from our comprehensive rulebook above:

Your points are impacted by both correctly predicting the number of films nominated and correctly predicting which films will be nominated; you'll get one point for every film you correctly predict to be nominated, but you will lose one for the difference between your total number of listed films and the number of nominees.

Example 1: Swo17 predicts only five BP nominees, and in fact all those films are nominated along with three others for a total of eight: Swo17 receives two points (5 correct minus 3 for the number of nominees).

Example 2: mfunk9786 predicts ten BP nominees, and only seven of those are nominated in addition to one he didn't list: mfunk9786 receives five points (7 correct minus 2 for the number of nominees)

Example 2: Mr. Sausage predicts nine BP nominees, and only eight of those are nominated: Mr. Sausage receives seven points (8 correct minus 1 for the number of nominees)

Thus I need to clarify exactly which films you're actually predicting will be nominated of the ten you listed: if it's all ten you'll get credit for any of the ten that are nominated but lose points if there are fewer than ten nominees, and if it's only the top eight, you'll get credit for only those and not numbers 9-10 even if they are nominated, and you'll only be penalized if there are more or less than eight total nominees.

Any questions? Totally clear now? Where'd everyone go?

Well I'm definitely not predicting 10 nominees, something that's never happened since the Academy moved to its weird hybrid system, so my top 8 will do.

God, this awards season seems to have gotten very homogenized very quickly...

Apperson wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:20 pm God, this awards season seems to have gotten very homogenized very quickly...

I'm really hoping that the compressed nomination timeline results in some fun surprises (the Safdies for Best Director, in particular).

Haven't done this in a while

Best Picture
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Uncut Gems

Best Director
Bong Joon Ho- Parasite
Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Martin Scorsese- The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sam Mendes- 1917


Best Actor
Adam Driver- Marriage Story
Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is my name
Joaquin Phoenix- Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Actress
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo- Harriet
Renee Zellweger- Judy
Saoirse Ronan- Little Women
Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story

Best Supporting Actor
Al Pacino- The Irishman
Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
Joe Pesci- The Irishman
Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Supporting Actress
Florence Pugh- Little Women
Jennifer Lopez- Hustlers
Laura Dern- Marriage Story
Meryl Streep – Little Women
Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Picture:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Director:
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Actor:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Actress:
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite

Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Original Screenplay:
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Uncut Gems

Adapted Screenplay:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Let's give it a go:

Best Picture

1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Diretor

Bong Joon Ho
Greta Gerwig
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino

Best Actor

Christian Bale
Antonio Banderas
Leonardo DiCaprio
Taron Egerton
Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress

Awkwafina
Cynthia Erivo
Scarlett Johansson
Charlize Theron
Renée Zellweger

Best Supporting Actor

Wilem Dafoe
Anthony Hopkins
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Margot Robbie (for Bombshell, not OUaTiH)
Zhao Shuzhen

Best Original Screenplay

1917
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbitt
Joker
Little Women

Picture
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Director
Greata Gerwig
Bong Joon Ho
Todd Phillips
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino

Actor
Christian Bale
Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Joaquin Phoenix
Jonathan Pryce

Actress
Awkwafina
Scarlett Johansson
Lupita Nyong'o
Saoirse Ronan
Renee Zellweger

Sup Actor
Tom Hanks
Song Kang Ho
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt

Sup Actress
Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Florence Pugh
Margot Robbie

Orig Screenplay
Booksmart
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Adap Screenplay
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes

Just for giggles, here are my predictions for the rest of the Oscar categories, not including short films:

Best International Feature Film
Beanpole (Russia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Parasite (South Korea)

Best Animated Feature
Abominable
Frozen II
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Best Documentary Feature
The Apollo
Apollo 11
The Cave
Honeyland
Knock Down the House

Best Cinematography
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Best Film Editing
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Best Original Score
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story

Best Original Song
Speechless (Aladdin)
Spirit (The Lion King)
A Glass of Soju (Parasite)
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again (Rocketman)
Glasgow (No Place Like Home) (Wild Rose)

Best Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Best Sound Editing
1917
Ad Astra
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Best Visual Effects
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

OK, let's do this:

Best Picture:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director:
Bong Joon-Ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino
Taika Waititi

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Taron Egerton
Joaquin Phoenix
Jonathan Pryce

Best Actress:
Awkwafina
Scarlett Johansson
Saorise Ronan
Charlize Theron
Renee Zellweger

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt
Anthony Hopkins

Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Florence Pugh
Nicole Kidman

Best Original Screenplay:
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood