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domino harvey wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:50 pm I'm seeing it floated that de Tavira is the first Oscar acting nom of the modern era to get in with absolutely no precursor award nominations. Not even a local critics org gave her anything

I can understand that.

Up until about an hour ago, she didn't even have a Wikipedia page!

Both acting nominations from Roma, especially de Tavira's, provide evidence the film has overwhelming support. It's going to win.

Pleasantly surprised by the nods for Buster Scruggs, especially the one for the delightful ditty.

Although I wasn't impressed by the film as a whole, the lack of nominations for First Man in Score and Editing are almost insulting.

Glad to have Caleb Deschanel back to the roster after 15 years.

De Tavira is an interesting one because her performance is pretty great, just the much more histrionic and joyless of the two lead female performances in the film. Wouldn't be altogether shocking to imagine that a good deal of voters connected more with the family in Roma than with the help, and the family is portrayed with a lovely empathetic eye by Cuaron. I would venture as far as to say that based on the sheer amount of recognition, things have shifted to Roma and The Favourite being the frontrunners to win Best Pic, and either of those would be fine even though I am iffy on Roma and don't like The Favourite. At least they're interesting films.

Yeah, if Roma winds up taking it home I feel like people here will be pretty happy in general. This whole slate could have been a lot worse - minus the Best Leading Actor category, which is almost completely yawn-inducing (Dafoe being the exception, and even then I'm pulling for him mostly because of his Florida Project snub last year).

I'm really happy that First Reformed got a screenplay nom but then it makes me even more confused as to how Ethan Hawke did not get an actor nom.

I love Roma but other than that I think a lot of these nominations are boring or wrong.

And no Burning for Best Foreign Film is just plain oversight.

Since I know everyone was waiting on the edge of their seats... Of the the five of us who posted predictions, the most accurate were:

1. Feego
2. (tie) Apperson
DarkImbecile
4. lacritfan
5. domino harvey

Feego, congratulations and keep an eye on your mailbox for the award statuette in the shape of a half-hearted smile and a shrug.

I'm surprised people are surprised about Roma not getting nommed for Best Editing. I can't recall any modern film composed mostly of long takes getting an Editing nom.

DarkImbecile wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:57 pm Given the support from the actor’s branch, I think Roma may now be the clear favorite for Best Picture, though the Editing snub is concerning.

The Editing category nominations are bizarre. Feels like they almost randomly chose some films that were nominated for other things.

I’m wondering what Roma’s dual Picture/Foreign Language nomination means down the road. Winning both would be unprecedented overkill, so I’m guessing Cold War wins foreign and Roma picture, or Roma gets shot in the foot by the foreign nomination, winning that and Picture goes elsewhere.

or maybe since Roma was nominated for Best Picture they could have left it off Best Foreign and PUT FRICKIN' BURNING ON THERE

Brian C wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:23 pm

domino harvey wrote:As someone who posts on the Internet, you know full well Crash is maybe the most remembered Best Picture winner of recent times. Just not positively

Right. I think tenia meant to say “The King’s Speech.” Although it did get a shoutout on Brooklyn Nine-Nine last week.

You win.
But domino probably more.
Or is it Shakespeare in Love ? Does anybody remember actually seeing this one ?

Persona wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:09 pm or maybe since Roma was nominated for Best Picture they could have left it off Best Foreign and PUT FRICKIN' BURNING ON THERE

Of the five movies I eagerly want to catch back on video (since I missed them in theaters), they're all foreign, and only 2 are nominated. The other 3 are indeed Burning, but also Leto and Dombass, both very likely to be much better than Capharnaum.

tenia wrote:Or is it Shakespeare in Love ? Does anybody remember actually seeing this one ?

Who can forget? It’s the movie that launched Joseph Fiennes to the international stardom he still enjoys to this day!

Shakespeare in Love doesn't play well now because it only really works if you find Paltrow charming and she's something of an outcast these days thanks to her kooky new age GOOP-iness, but it was the best film nominated that year and deserved to win (though it is widely acknowledged as 100% a Weinstein success story-- prob another reason it's not aged well!)

MongooseCmr wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:06 pm I’m wondering what Roma’s dual Picture/Foreign Language nomination means down the road. Winning both would be unprecedented overkill, so I’m guessing Cold War wins foreign and Roma picture, or Roma gets shot in the foot by the foreign nomination, winning that and Picture goes elsewhere.

I think it could easily win both, and that isn't a combination I think would be likely to happen again, so I don't know that voters will think they have to support it in one or the other. I'm sure Netflix's awards people will be working overtime to dispel that notion, or worst case push people to reward Cold War in foreign film to prioritize BP votes.

Overall, as unfortunate as some of the Best Picture choices are, I think the Academy did a much better job with its nominations than the guilds; if they had cobbled together the worst of the SAG/DGA/WGA nominees, this could have been a real horrorshow.

domino harvey wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:22 pm Shakespeare in Love doesn't play well now because it only really works if you find Paltrow charming and she's something of an outcast these days thanks to her kooky new age GOOP-iness, but it was the best film nominated that year and deserved to win (though it is widely acknowledged as 100% a Weinstein success story-- prob another reason it's not aged well!)

Ha more Domino craziness! I don't love Pvt. Ryan but it's way better than that and Thin Red Line is a masterpiece.
Why would people not vote Roma in both categories? Even though I feel like Cuaron might walk away winning just director and not BP (out of the two top rewards). Will be interesting to see how much hell win.
Also, what's the most nominations for a single person?

dda1996a wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:50 pmAlso, what's the most nominations for a single person?

Per this article it's Walt Disney, who had six nominations in 1954.

Besides Roma, are any of the Foreign Language films available to stream (US) anywhere?

I think the most likely outcome of Roma’s two picture nominations is that it wins Foreign Film but doesn’t win Best Picture. Obviously you never really know, but being nominated for Foreign Film is an easy way to let voters ghetto-ize a non-American movie that they otherwise like and use the BP votes for someone else.

domino harvey wrote: Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:22 pm Shakespeare in Love doesn't play well now because it only really works if you find Paltrow charming and she's something of an outcast these days thanks to her kooky new age GOOP-iness, but it was the best film nominated that year and deserved to win (though it is widely acknowledged as 100% a Weinstein success story-- prob another reason it's not aged well!)

I have never liked Shakespeare in Love. It's cutesy, treacly prestige-bait, and as a teen who loved Shakespeare growing up, it annoyed me that it was all winky-wink Shakespeare references and zero Shakespeare understanding. It aims for a modernization of Shakespeare wit, too, and misses by so wide a margin it falls far more on the side of Miramax humor: rarely merits laughter and never half as clever as it thinks it is.

That said, 1998 was, generally speaking, a pretty mediocre year for movies, so whatever. I guess it's almost fitting that a movie like Shakespeare in Love would win BP that year. Edit: totally forgot about The Thin Red Line. And, yes, Saving Private Ryan over Shakespeare in Love, too, every day of the week and twice on Saturday (even if mostly just for the book-ends). And so then I just looked at the actual 1998 Best Picture nominees and lmao. Guess the war movie votes got split.

Returning to the topic at hand, I have never even heard of Never Look Away (and yet the Academy nominated it, a combination of facts which has left me a bit shook) and am now going to seek it out with fervor given that Caleb Deschanel shot it. (I didn't think Deschanel had done anything recently so am looking at his Wiki and wait, what, Spiderwick Chronicles? Winter's Tale? ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER? [He also did Killer Joe which I half liked but has a very VOD aesthetic]). Anyways, apparently the Academy thinks his cinematography is good for this one, and I'm 100% down for primo Deschanel.

Brian C wrote:I think the most likely outcome of Roma’s two picture nominations is that it wins Foreign Film but doesn’t win Best Picture. Obviously you never really know, but being nominated for Foreign Film is an easy way to let voters ghetto-ize a non-American movie that they otherwise like and use the BP votes for someone else.

I think if this ends up being the case then Spike Lee wins. Seems like a good opportunity to reward him for his career.

I'm fine with Blackkklansman but it really feels like his safest film in a while (sans the ending) so fitting that this is the film he gets the most accolades for

This selection is really weird. Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody are barely fresh on RT. I can't even remember the last time we had two Best picture nominees sitting at 60%. Green Book is doing a lot better, and yet it's considered one of the favorites to win.

It's not even the Academy's fault at this point. the guilds had some even worse options. And the Globe winners were terrible. So many nominations for foreign films this year (including two for Director, probably the first time ever) just enhances the impression that voters were not happy with the Hollywood options they had.