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Even though the main odds on goldderby are showing 1917 as the frontrunner and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood losing steam in the BP race, it appears that the "experts" are still by and large predicting the Tarantino to take home the big prize. I have no idea what to actually pay attention to, or if I'm getting my hopes up for nothing, but I don't know what to make of that

Feels like we're in for a director/picture split

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:30 pm Feels like we're in for a director/picture split

At this point, this is all I want

It makes sense, on some level. Tarantino had the support of some of the finest collaborators in the business, while 1917 is an ambitiously constructed showpiece full of little known actors. And we certainly haven't seen a war picture like that in the last few years that would have deserved this sort of prize!

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:30 pm Feels like we're in for a director/picture split

In what way do you predict?

1917 will definitely get something and if it does hopefully it’s 1917 Picture and Parasite Director because i doubt they would do it the other way around.

I'm expecting 1917 to win both Picture and Director, but if it were to split it would be Once Upon a Time... winning Picture and 1917 winning Director. If someone other than Tarantino takes the latter, I would certainly prefer it be Bong, but I don't think that's gonna happen.

mfunk9786 wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:42 pm It makes sense, on some level. Tarantino had the support of some of the finest collaborators in the business, while 1917 is an ambitiously constructed showpiece full of little known actors. And we certainly haven't seen a war picture like that in the last few years that would have deserved this sort of prize!

Dunkirk?

That is indeed the joke

The Tarantino has no current support for anything but Pitt based on predecessors. I would not start getting your hopes up that it wins more than that and probably screenplay (though I think even that’s a toss up at this point)

Hopes are plenty low as is, but I haven't seen 1917 so can't really have much of a dog in this fight. Still have seen more Director/Picture splits in recent years and that would be one that'd honor the craftsmanship of the Mendes and the ensemble of the Tarantino nicely.

We have seen a lot of splits, but this year the technically dazzling film that seems likely to get Director is also apparently leading with the most broad support for film in the big category. If anything but 1917 or Parasite wins Best Picture, it will be a stunning refutation of guilds as predictors, as least

So going back to my original post, what does that indicate for all the "experts" on Goldderby apparently predicting otherwise? Are they in unison making such a stunning refutation, or is this information old or incorrect?

therewillbeblus wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:30 pm So going back to my original post, what does that indicate for all the "experts" on Goldderby apparently predicting otherwise? Are they in unison making such a stunning refutation, or is this information old or incorrect?

Many experts have not updated their lists in the last couple weeks, for starters. I usually only look at the combined Experts odds chart

That's helpful, thanks, and same - I just went back today and was a bit surprised but skeptical when it listed more than ten films in the BP race...

The way they have it set up, they can’t remove speculated titles... it’s why you always see weird rando failed Oscar bait and never-in-contention movies the further down you scroll. Though I’ll admit I haven’t checked out the page in a while since I don’t think I need a chart of experts this year, but it’s often fun to go back and see what won compared to what was predicted

kcota17 wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:42 pm
In what way do you predict?

1917 will definitely get something and if it does hopefully it’s 1917 Picture and Parasite Director because i doubt they would do it the other way around.

My preference would be for Parasite to win Picture/Director/Screenplay.

But I think the way it is going to go is Tarantino for Picture/Screenplay and Mendes/Director.

In the last 10 years - it is Screenplay that has become affiliated with Picture rather than Director. In the past 10 years, Director matched Picture only 5 times (half) but Screenplay matched Picture 8 times (controlling for the fact that there are 2 screenplay categories). So look for a greater co-realtion between screenplay and picture than director.

Now all 3 frontrunners are in the same category - Original. 1917 does not have a prayer of winning screenplay - atleast it shouldn't. The nomination itself is ridiculous.
I doubt they they give Screenplay to Parasite. It might be seen as more of a director's movie.
So the default screenplay winner is Tarantino.

And by extension, that also tips the balance in his favor for Best Picture. Besides Once Upon.. is such a Hollywood film.

So again my prediction would be Tarantino for Picture/Screenplay and Mendes for Director and I wouldn't like any of those 3 wins.

The Oscars have a history of giving the screenplay Oscar as a consolation prize to the film that they know won’t win Best Picture, and you're not looking at enough data to draw the conclusions you’re grabbing

I don't see how that controls for the fact that there are two screenplay categories either though. If anything, controlling for the odds would make it around the same ratio as director even in the small sample size you're looking at

Official nominations for the French Academy Awards.

Quick sum-up of the multiple nominations (public award aside) :
12 : J'accuse
11 : La Belle Époque ; Les Misérables
10 : Portrait de la jeune fille en feu
8 : Grâce à Dieu ; Hors normes
7 : Roubaix, une lumière
3 : Atlantique ; J'ai perdu mon corps ; Le Chant du loup
2 : Au nom de la terre ; Edmond ; Papicha ; Seules les bêtes

Note that there has been a (laughable) change for the César du public this year : after having been awarded two years to the French movie which has had the most BO success in France, this year, the 5 most successful French movies are nominated and the Academy members will vote for one of these.
This means that potentially, we won't get a stupidly bad but very popular comedy getting an award again this year, but a most likely better movie but 2 to 3 times less successful movie, and overall much less popular ones. And they're pretty much all way more drama-oriented.
For an award solely created so that very successful poor French comedies also get an Award on top of the CNC subventions and the BO money, it's quite ironic it's getting in that direction so quickly, but I guess the Academy realised they didn't want to keep on awarding for decades such bad movies.

It is surprising J'Accuse got so many nominations despite the scandal.

Paul Schrader shared this Variety article on his Facebook page. Not in love with all of it but I think he makes a good point about 1917’s faults at the end so I’ll recommend it, or at least skipping to the last paragraph.

So again my prediction would be Tarantino for Picture/Screenplay...

If Tarantino is going to win for directing or best picture it won't be until his final movie. I have no data to support that statement, it's just a feeling I have. And he already has two screenwriting oscars, I can't see him getting a third especially since it's only been a few years since he last won for Django.

I think this is his last shot for BP/Director but due to his own self-imposed constraints and statements. This film was his thesis film and cumulative work, and he’s been pretty open about his last film being a bookend, a smaller film, and possibly a horror. With Tarantino you never know but I think he knows as well as everyone that this is his magnum opus and ultimate love letter to cinema, and if he wins any of those top prizes it’ll be here- unless of course it’s a Peter Jackson LOTR thing or he winds up with another one of these expansive complex masterpieces up his sleeve. I think he’ll get a third screenplay too here, and don’t see how any previous wins count against him, only for him. Iñárritu took director two years in a row recently!

The Academy announced that Billie Eilish will be performing at the Oscars. I think it's likely to be the new James Bond song and potentially sets an interesting precedence for the show.

That is not very likely considering she will undoubtedly be at the Oscars next year to perform the same song as it’s now a thing that Bond songs get nominated (and win, actually). It’s probably just filling in for one of the nominated people who won’t be able to come for whatever reason