Roma didn't win because it was just polarizing enough to be vulnerable in an instant run off situation (whether that's because of netflix, or a stylistic dislike of slow cinema, or a dislike of foreign language or a dislike of black and white, for example).DarkImbecile wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:44 pmI think Roma would have won if not for anti-Netflix sentimenthearthesilence wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:40 pmI think so too, but I don't recall (or know of) any foreign-language nominee that came off this strong as a Best Picture contender. It wouldn't surprise me if it broke the barrier and became the first foreign-language film to win the top prize.DarkImbecile wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:25 pm I’d say it’s in the top four contenders, along with 1917, Irishman, and Hollywood, but I have to think the foreign language hurdle is still a real obstacle
Another way of looking at this, Roma is not the type of movie to maximize the strategic possibilities to win an instant run off ballot.
A film like Roma (somewhat polarizing) wins when it runs up an early insurmountable lead, so a later downballot disadvantage in the runoff stage won't materially hurt it. But in a reasonably competitive field, it won't build up a sufficient early lead, and in the downballot stage, films that are less polarizing will get an advantage in vote share in the instant run off.
it's interesting that Driving Mr Daisy, while very polarizing after it's win, was banal enough that it never became a polarizing film like Roma or Vice or The Favourite. But it's also worth pointing out that Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born didn't win, so just being a 'likable' film doesn't confer especial downballot advantages if you don't have sufficient passion votes (to take advantage of being likeable) from the early rounds.
Note, only BP is instant runoff, the other categories are all wins by plurality, and Roma clearly got some very deserved wins in those categories, just as it probably would have won if BP were also by plurality.