Awards Season 2020

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therewillbeblus
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:40 pm

Re: Awards Season 2020

#251 Post by therewillbeblus » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:52 am

You might think so, but that’s not why it won

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domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#252 Post by domino harvey » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:53 am

Minari seems like the likeliest bet to me as well, but it losing ensemble at SAG is notable

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#253 Post by therewillbeblus » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am

Definitely, but I think psychologically liberal voters are going to rank it higher as an unconscious part of the brain will consider it a philanthropic act. Hollywood wants to be remembered a the group that took a stand in the year of Asian hate going public. I’m not sure how the voting is done for the SAGs or if the timeline is earlier, but those factors could easily influence its momentum.

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knives
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#254 Post by knives » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:04 am

therewillbeblus wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:52 am
You might think so, but that’s not why it won
It’s a bit ridiculous to suggest it won solely because of Iranian politics though. On the plain descriptive level The Salesman seems like an easier sell to voters than Toni. I mean which of these sounds more likely to get votes at the oscars: a traditional relationship drama from an Oscar winner centered around actors or a weird and long comedy that uses complex tones and daughter-father relations to criticize western work culture?

Even without Iran being awful I’m not sure Toni had much a chance of winning.

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#255 Post by therewillbeblus » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:09 am

It wasn’t Iranian politics, it was Trump’s Muslim ban and the director making a statement by refusing to attend the ceremony even though he was granted an exception for passage. If I recall correctly the film went from being a dark horse at best to a frontrunner within weeks of the director gaining buzz for that comment. Obviously if the film was bad it wouldn’t have won, but I’m saying that the reason it accrued the votes to win isn’t because people liked it more as a movie. There’s a difference.

Also knives, this isn’t an original thought. Nearly every predictor/critic I read that year was making this connection as the reason the film was going to win, including those who were in full support of it winning for primarily political reasons, and those who thought it was a better film.

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knives
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#256 Post by knives » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:18 am

The prediction markets could also just be wrong. It’s not like they were, or were capable of, doing a scientific model on the race. Like I said, the politics did almost certainly have an effect, but given just what the two movies are and the academy’s usual voting patterns The Salesman winning because people liked it wouldn’t be surprising. I mean, who’s to even say Toni Erdmann was in second place. It could have been A Man Called Ove for all we know.

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Pavel
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#257 Post by Pavel » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:05 pm

The reason I'm skeptical of Minari winning Best Picture is because it doesn't seem to have much of a shot at Screenplay (that's between Chicago 7 and PYM; Globes vs WGA & Critic's Choice) and nearly no chance to win Director. So the Academy thinks it's not the best written or best directed film, but still somehow the best film? Supporting Actress + Picture is too small a package (and I'm not so sure about Youn — Borat got a lot of support from the WGA and PGA, plus there's a clear political angle; I could see Minari being this year's Lady Bird — easy to like with lots of noms, but no wins). Since the race is usually between the Director winner vs Screenplay winner, I'd say #2 is PYM.

Oh, and I also think Toni Erdmann was definitely #2 (and likely would've won under different circumstances), because it made a lot of noise at Cannes and was generally the most popular of the nominated films. Often much of the Academy doesn't bother watching every foreign film and just votes for the most popular one, and in 2016 that was def Toni Erdmann.

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#258 Post by therewillbeblus » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:23 pm

knives wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:18 am
The prediction markets could also just be wrong. It’s not like they were, or were capable of, doing a scientific model on the race. Like I said, the politics did almost certainly have an effect, but given just what the two movies are and the academy’s usual voting patterns The Salesman winning because people liked it wouldn’t be surprising. I mean, who’s to even say Toni Erdmann was in second place. It could have been A Man Called Ove for all we know.
Well unless one of your posts was deleted, you actually didn’t say the politics certainly had an effect... but you have pulled the foolproof “strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation” trump card. So yes, everyone else could have been wrong and someone who misremembered the context of the historical events in their devils advocate retort could be right. Though to answer your "who's to say" question, the answer is most predictors that year. But they could be wrong, so you win

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#259 Post by therewillbeblus » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:31 pm

Pavel wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:05 pm
The reason I'm skeptical of Minari winning Best Picture is because it doesn't seem to have much of a shot at Screenplay (that's between Chicago 7 and PYM; Globes vs WGA & Critic's Choice) and nearly no chance to win Director. So the Academy thinks it's not the best written or best directed film, but still somehow the best film? Supporting Actress + Picture is too small a package (and I'm not so sure about Youn — Borat got a lot of support from the WGA and PGA, plus there's a clear political angle; I could see Minari being this year's Lady Bird — easy to like with lots of noms, but no wins). Since the race is usually between the Director winner vs Screenplay winner, I'd say #2 is PYM.
I hope you're right about Promising Young Woman, but spreading the wealth isn't entirely unprecedented. See the year of Argo as exhibit A

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Pavel
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#260 Post by Pavel » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:34 pm

Yeah, but Argo won Adapted Screenplay. And Editing, which is usually the most important "below-the-line" category, and Minari isn't even nominated.
And giving Picture, Director, very likely Adapted Screenplay and maaaaaybe Editing (that'll only happen if Nomadland sweeps really hard; otherwise it's Trial vs Sound) to an Asian woman seems like a good way to show support.

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#261 Post by therewillbeblus » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:55 pm

Right, though nothing's been predictable this past year, so who even knows anything anymore. As long as Nomadland doesn't win, I'll be happy

felipe
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#262 Post by felipe » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:52 pm

I think right now BP is between Nomadland and Chicago 7, the indie vs the Hollywood production, just like Roma vs Green Book, Parasite vs 1917 or Moonlight vs La La Land. It can go either way.

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Toland's Mitchell
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#263 Post by Toland's Mitchell » Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:17 pm

DarkImbecile wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:37 pm
I'll probably just make anyone who participated last year but hasn't posted on Portrait (or Sunset, for a certain moderator) ineligible, unless I get a convincing pandemic/unemployment/general 2020 chaos excuse.
I'm just now seeing this post. I would like to play the Oscar game again, but I'm another one who hasn't posted about Portrait yet. I watched Portrait once and wanted to give a second watch it before sharing some thoughts, but then the 2020 chaos started. And for me, that chaos still hasn't let up. Nevertheless, I want to hold my end of the deal and post something. Give me a deadline.

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DarkImbecile
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#264 Post by DarkImbecile » Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:31 pm

11:59 PM, April 24th, 2021

Feel free to write up László Nemes' Sunset instead if that’s easier/more compelling/etc!

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flyonthewall2983
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#265 Post by flyonthewall2983 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:57 am

Bill Maher on “the Debbies”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#266 Post by therewillbeblus » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:27 am

flyonthewall2983 wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:57 am
Bill Maher on “the Debbies”
Uh Spoiler Alert: Do NOT watch this if you haven’t seen Promising Young Woman, he spoils the movie in a single line at the beginning with no warning

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Pavel
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#267 Post by Pavel » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:33 am

I don't think he's seen the films. Ignoring the dumb notion that cinema, much less 8 films selected by the Academy, have to make you feel good, this is a very shallow and narrow-minded description of the films, ignoring PYM's dark humor, Minari's gentle optimism and cute family dynamics, Sound of Metal's touching ending (and it's hardly depressing to watch Ruben bond with the deaf community), how entertaining Chicago 7 is (plus a Hollywood-style feel-good ending), and how Judas plays like a thriller along the lines of The Departed. These films only sound depressing if you twist a particular aspect of them when describing them. The only one that I guess could make somebody "want to take a bath with a toaster" is The Father, but that still has a riveting Hopkins performance that is always magnificent to watch. But even if the films were the way he describes them, it's ridiculous to want the 8 supposedly best films of the year to be escapist fun because 2020 was rough. Jeez

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therewillbeblus
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:40 pm

Re: Awards Season 2020

#268 Post by therewillbeblus » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:52 am

Yeah I didn’t find it funny but I “get” the joke, the same way I get why Bill Burr exposes hypocrisies as a brand when he’s not actually a rigid-minded toxic person. I’m just angry that he seems to be saying stuff we already know about these movies and then casually ruins one of them (the best one, but that’s beside the point) embedded in the same bit. Can you really not find a way to make fun of Promising Young Woman’s first or second acts, because there’s plenty of material there to play with..

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Brian C
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#269 Post by Brian C » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:01 pm

I'm not the world's biggest Maher fan - as I've said in this forum - but that clip hits pretty close to the mark as far as I'm concerned. Not so much about the movies being "sad", but about the mindset behind them and the industry's general stratification into franchises on one hand and self-serious, socially conscious preening on the other. I've seen 5 of the 8 Best Picture nominees, and while I don't really dislike any of them exactly and even liked a couple, the cumulative experience so far has been kind of a slog.

The most obvious rebuttal to Maher here to me is simply that the pandemic pushed a lot of stuff back, and so the nominees this year are sort of picked from a slate of leftovers. How much did it matter in the end? Hard to say, and we very well may have ended up with a similar slate of nominees anyway. But "where is the escapism??" sort of fails to acknowledge the elephant in the room. Still, I think it's fair to say that this year's slate seems like an accurate representation of the trends in the Academy's tastes over the last several years, and it's easy for me to understand why general audiences are just not on board, at all.

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Pavel
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#270 Post by Pavel » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:55 pm


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Pavel
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#271 Post by Pavel » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:58 pm

Looks like Chadwick Boseman isn't going to be completely unchallenged. Hopkins obv has the advantage of being British, but Glenn Close won everything except Bafta in 2019, so who knows.
I submit Youn is close to a lock at this point. Happy that Sound of Metal won Editing. Don't think Trial has much of a shot at Original Screenplay anymore. Adapted seems to be the more fun race

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#272 Post by therewillbeblus » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:31 pm

This is coming from a place of total ignorance, but I wonder if Boseman's posthumous lock has more to do with American sociopolitics. I imagine he's still a shoe-in for Oscar voters.

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domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#273 Post by domino harvey » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:33 pm

I mean, I didn't even like the movie and I'll concede it's a very worthy performance and as with Ledger's winning role seems like a perf that could have gone the distance without the sympathy boost. But I am way behind on awards prospects this year and have no point of comparison for his competition

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Pavel
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#274 Post by Pavel » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:58 pm

I think the narrative of Boseman knowing this is going to likely be his last performance and giving it his all is stronger than all other factors. I def think he would've been nominated had he not passed away, but I'm pretty sure the winner would've been Hopkins. I'm probably taking his win here more seriously than most (Boseman is still the clear frontrunner) both because of the Close/Colman situation and because The Father has been getting a lot of hype right before voting, with a lot of people saying it's his best performance, which could make voters feel like voting for him isn't a wrong decision

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therewillbeblus
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Re: Awards Season 2020

#275 Post by therewillbeblus » Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:04 pm

Hopkins might've, but I think Riz Ahmed's perf would win in a 'normal' year, and yes Boseman would still be up there

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