barryconvex wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:00 am
Three combined wins in the screenwriting, directing or best picture categories puts a person in with the elite of the elite and three wins for OG screenplay alone is Woody Allen territory. I'm not sure the academy thinks as highly of Tarantino. Your points are well taken though and I hope he wins everything he's nominated for.
I do think QT is clearly beloved by the Academy even if he never ends up winning a Best Director or Best Picture statuette, just based on how many nominations (and wins across the categories) his films have garnered over the years. Among more discerning critics and academics he may be a more controversial figure but within the Hollywood community he is respected as an immense talent and a thoroughly entertaining filmmaker, to which the comments by this year's BHOV attest. He is the rare director who appeals to many (though not all) cinephiles while also being extremely popular with mainstream audiences like my parents who loved Once Upon a Time. Hitting that sweet spot is what the Academy respects and traditionally rewards. I predict that Once Upon a Time will win three awards this year (Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Production Design; maybe also Costume Design), which would be indicative of how well liked it is within the Hollywood community.
As Anne Thompson noted on a recent Indiewire podcast, if Tarantino were not retiring so early he would certainly go on to win a Best Director or Best Picture Oscar later in his career.
barryconvex wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:00 am
Three combined wins in the screenwriting, directing or best picture categories puts a person in with the elite of the elite and three wins for OG screenplay alone is Woody Allen territory. I'm not sure the academy thinks as highly of Tarantino. Your points are well taken though and I hope he wins everything he's nominated for.
Is his screenplay record as impressive as that? Allen and Mike Leigh have more nominations and Pete Docter as many as him. Wes Anderson, Coens and Kenneth Lonengren are at 3 so just 1 behind. They will all probably get nominations again.
I hope Tarantino does not win for Original Screenplay. But if he does win, he would be a tad over-rated and Allen would be underrated. Allen has won thrice. But the scripts he hasn't won for include - Manhattan, Broadway Danny Rose, Purple Rose of Cairo, Radio Days and Crimes and Misdemeanours.
For directors Tarantino has just 3 nominations. Scorsese has 9. Woody Allen and Spielberg have 7. Eastwood has 4 and Stephen Daldry, Alexander Payne, Ang Lee, David O Russell, Joel Coen have as many as Tarantino.
I believe barryconvex is talking about wins and not nominations. Tarantino is already tied with Chayefsky, Brackett, and Wilder for second place under Allen for wins, so I'd say that's impressive.
The truth is that many people at the Oscars don't win for their best work, while sometimes they do. I don't think Tarantino's wins are necessarily his best scripts but I still think he earned them. I don't think many people believe that Joker was Phoenix's best performance but I'm happy for him. The way awards ceremonies work is that people compete against the films/people they are up against. People also get honored all the time for overdue awards or the best of that year rather than their own best action/direction/writing/(insert category) job. I mean, does anybody really think that The Departed is Scorsese's best film? Or that the third LOTR was the best one?
therewillbeblus wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:05 pm
I believe barryconvex is talking about wins and not nominations. Tarantino is already tied with Chayefsky, Brackett, and Wilder for second place under Allen for wins, so I'd say that's impressive.
Especially when one considers that Tarantino's career is relatively short and his filmography comparatively small.
BEST PIC 1917
BEST DIRECTOR Mendes
BEST ACTOR Phoenix
BEST ACTRESS Zellweger
BEST SUP ACTOR Pitt
BEST SUP ACTRESS Dern
ADAPTED SP Jojo Rabbit
ORIGINAL SP Parasite
...THE REST (added 1130 EST 2/06)
ANIMATED FEAT Klaus
ANIMATED SHORT Hair Love
CINE 1917
COSTUME Jojo Rabbit
DOC FEAT American Factory
DOC SHORT Skateboard
EDITING Ford v Ferrari
INT FILM Parasite
LIVE SHORT Brotherhood
MAKEUP Bombshell
PROD DES Parasite
SCORE Joker
SFX the Irishman
SONG Rocketman
SOUND EDIT 1917
SOUND MIX 1917
domino harvey wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:20 am
Okay, time for dem Oscar predix:
BEST PIC 1917
BEST DIRECTOR Mendes
BEST ACTOR Phoenix
BEST ACTRESS Zellweger
BEST SUP ACTOR Pitt
BEST SUP ACTRESS Dern
ADAPTED SP Jojo Rabbit
ORIGINAL SP Parasite
Jesus I hope not. Beside Pitt and Parasite I dislike all those (I like Marriage Story but Dern was by far the worst in that)
Here are the rules DarkImbecile posted a month back for the predictions contest:
DarkImbecile wrote: Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:17 pmUnless your post specifically says otherwise, if you post your predictions for the 2020 Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Awards in all categories in this thread before 11:59 PM Eastern time on Saturday, February 8, 2020, you are entered in the CF.org Oscar Winners Predictions Sweepstakes, with a chance to win the Grand Prize of: naming one (1) 2019 film that is accessible through legal means in an English-friendly version and politely suggesting that all non-winning contestants see and and post about that film within a reasonable time frame or face a penalty of lukewarm public shaming.
Scoring:
One point per correctly predicted winner
Tiebreaker: in the case of a tie, the individual who posted their list of predictions earliest will be declared the winner
I'll be posting mine very soon, I don't know if I'll predict 1917 as the most likely winner or Parasite as a possible upset.
dda1996a wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:26 amJesus I hope not. Beside Pitt and Parasite I dislike all those (I like Marriage Story but Dern was by far the worst in that)
Those are the current Gold Derby predictions, so get used to them
Ha, I didn’t even check before posting my picks but I’m not shocked! My Predix are, as they are every year, for what would be the least surprising wins, no value judgment attached. I fully intend to win this competition
dda1996a wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:26 amJesus I hope not. Beside Pitt and Parasite I dislike all those (I like Marriage Story but Dern was by far the worst in that)
Those are the current Gold Derby predictions, so get used to them
I know... And I wasn't being judgemental towards you domino! Surprised about the favors Jojo is getting for adapted though.
People thinking Parasite will win screenplay are giving the academy too much credit. Though I am happy to be proven wrong.
In the past 50 years, only once has a foreign language screenplay won.
We have seen this movie before. In 2012, a lot of the "experts" predicted another foreign language film - Amour - to win screenplay against Tarantino. But Tarantino prevailed. The same thing will happen this year. Even last year, people thought Roma would win. But Green Book prevailed.
I think Tarantino will win screenplay. I would consider Parasite winning a surprise shock upset.
Tarantino has made it exceedingly easy to not vote for him this year with his attitude. Not sure why you’re putting experts in scare quotes, from what I can tell you seem to be obsessively checking their words against random stats for the last couple weeks now
Tarantino did not compete at the WGA (he ain't part of the guild).
Lots of wins which have precursors are still upset wins at the Oscars. Like Olvia Colman. She won Globe and Bafta yet her win was a surprise shock upset.
domino harvey wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:28 pm
Then he needs to clarify, I assumed it was the same categories we already voted on
I meant all categories because if we only do eight (and only being able to pick winners and not nominees), we’re going to have like six people tied for first. Gotta introduce some degree of difficulty!
Okay, I've edited my picks, still first and still winning. Since I've seen none of them, I voted for the shorts that sounded like they were award-worthy on title alone, as I'm sure many of the actual voters did too
Usually I check out of these by the third paragraph, but this was by far the best, smartest and most informed one of these I've read. Wouldn't shock me if this was Ellen Barkin.
Usually I check out of these by the third paragraph, but this was by far the best, smartest and most informed one of these I've read. Wouldn't shock me if this was Ellen Barkin.
Is this a bit? There are multiple points at which Hollywood Reporter has to correct the comments because they're factually wrong. Def amusing takes though!
Remember the bar is very low, but with that said whether it was the bit about Hanks, her points about The Irishman, Little Women etc, etc. I thought she was right. Most of the time it's very obvious the secret voter hasn't even watched these movies or doesn't give a shit but, you could tell that not only has she seen them, but she's spent a great time thinking about them not just as films, but also within the context of the movie business.
Best Picture: Prediction: 1917 My Pick (Nominees): Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, with The Irishman and Parasite right there My Pick (Non-Nominees): Portrait of a Lady on Fire (probably best to just ignore this section throughout, because this is going to get repetitive)
Best Director: Prediction: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite My Pick (Nominees): Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood My Pick (Non-Nominees): Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Actress: Prediction: Renée Zellweger, Judy My Pick (Nominees): Saoirse Ronan, Little Women My Pick (Non-Nominees): Adèle Haenel, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, with Noémie Merlant up there as well
Best Actor: Prediction: Joaquin Pheonix, Joker My Pick (Nominees): Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory My Pick (Non-Nominees): August Diehl, A Hidden Life
Best Supporting Actress: Prediction: Laura Dern, Marriage Story My Pick (Nominees): Florence Pugh, Little Women My Pick (Non-Nominees): Valerie Pachner, A Hidden Life
Best Supporting Actor: Prediction: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood My Pick (Nominees): Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood My Pick (Non-Nominees): Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Best Adapted Screenplay: Prediction: Greta Gerwig, Little Women My Pick (Nominees): Steven Zaillian, The Irishman My Pick (Non-Nominees): I think Robert Eggers' work on The Lighthouse qualifies, given the sourcing of some of the dialogue from period texts
Best Original Screenplay: Prediction: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite My Pick (Nominees): Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood My Pick (Non-Nominees): Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Cinematography: Prediction: Roger Deakins, 1917 My Pick (Nominees): Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse My Pick (Non-Nominees): Claire Mathon, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best International Film: Prediction: Parasite My Pick (Nominees): Parasite My Pick (Non-Nominees): Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Editing: Prediction: Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, Ford v. Ferrari (I'd bet that voters want to give FvF something, but I could also see this going to Parasite) My Pick (Nominees): Yang Jinmo, Parasite My Pick (Non-Nominees): Julien Lacheray, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Original Score: Prediction: Hildur Gudnadóttir, Joker My Pick (Nominees): Thomas Newman, 1917 My Pick (Non-Nominees): Alberto Iglesias, Pain and Glory
Best Original Song: Prediction: Elton John & Bernie Taupin, "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again", Rocketman My Pick (Nominees): God, I hate this category...Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo, "Stand Up", Harriet, I guess My Pick (Non-Nominees): "Glasgow", Wild Rose (haven't seen the movie, but I've heard the song a few times and it's better than any of the nominees)
Best Production Design: Prediction: Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood My Pick (Nominees): Lee Ha Jun & Cho Won Woo, Parasite My Pick (Non-Nominees): Thomas Grézaud, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design: Prediction: Jacqueline Durran, Little Women My Pick (Nominees): Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood My Pick (Non-Nominees): Dorothée Guiraud, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Prediction: Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou, Joker My Pick (Nominees): Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole, 1917 My Pick (Non-Nominees): The Irishman
Visual Effects: Prediction: Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy, 1917 My Pick (Nominees): Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy, 1917 My Pick (Non-Nominees): Scott Fisher, Ad Astra
Sound Editing: Prediction: Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate, 1917 My Pick (Nominees): Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari My Pick (Non-Nominees): Mariusz Glabinski, The Lighthouse
Sound Mixing: Prediction: Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917 My Pick (Nominees): Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson, and Mark Ulano, Ad Astra My Pick (Non-Nominees): Mariusz Glabinski, The Lighthouse
Best Documentary: Prediction: Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert, American Factory My Pick (Nominees): Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan, The Edge of Democracy My Pick (Non-Nominees): Asif Kapadia, Diego Maradona
Best Documentary Short: Prediction: "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)"
Best Animated Short: Prediction: "Hair Love"
Best Live Action Short: Prediction: "Nefta Football Club"
Best Animated Feature: Prediction: Missing Link My Pick (Nominees): I Lost My Body My Pick (Non-Nominees): All of the animated movies I saw this year were nominated!
